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NYSE:BABA

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)

107.17
+0.07 (0.07%)
as of Jun 18, 2026, 11:54:20 pm Market Open.
439 watching
0
COMMENT

Their valuation is crazy, partially the result of being the recipient of a lot of fund flows buying. Even if they fell 20%, they're still high. But he's been wrong about this stock before.

PARTIAL BUY

It has a 1.11 beta. Doesn't pay a dividend. Competing with Amazon, but Amazon can't operate in China, where Alibaba can operate in America. Just had one of its best quarters ever with 56% YOY growth. Added 27 million active consumers last year, one of its biggest rises in the past three years. But there will be volatility and they can't grow 30-40% forever. Buy half a position to mitigate risk.

BUY

The Amazon of China, covering all the right bases. Valuation is okay. You're buying secular growth at 25%. The relative strength is great. It has consoliidated for a while. Downside to $170 and upside to $200, so that's your range. If ir breaks above $200, you're up up and away. Secular themes are great.

TOP PICK

The world's largest online and mobile commerce. Has a huge, untapped internet audience in China with half the penetration rate of the U.S. Long runway. Management just raised guidance on revenue growth to 55% from 49%. Compared to Amazon, trading cheaply. (Analysts price target: $229.86)

DON'T BUY

An expensive stock. It's centric to China and they want to be more global, therefore it's becoming riskier. They have unique businesses like Alipay which is used aggressively within China. It'll be hard to move beyond. He'd rather buy Amazon. Then again, there are a lot of people (customers) in China.

COMMENT

This is China’s largest online marketplace. It is very similar to Amazon and is very dominate – growing at 60-70% year over year. He likes the backdrop of Chinese equities, but there is risk when dealing in China. He sees the vast market size of this market as attractive. It plays a part in a portfolio strategy.

TOP PICK

This is a play on global e-commerce. A well-run company and better than Amazon, because they simply connect the supplier with the end-user – avoiding building large warehouses. The multiple is 33X earnings with a 40% compound annual growth rate on revenues. Governance should not be an issue with the Chinese government. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $229.86 )

TOP PICK

They control 80% of the e-commerce market in China. They have their own cloud as well as AliPay, which is expanding throughout Asia. T-Mall is an online digital mall. They are growing about 40% top line and 20% bottom line. (Analysts’ target: $229.82).

DON'T BUY

Looking at the Price to Earnings multiple, this stock is overvalued. It has had a huge run up over the last year, but the market was expecting more. It is difficult to model the downside of this stock and so she will not buy it.

HOLD

It is a cloud play. It is a Chinese AMZN-Q. Hang tight. This one can really whip around. He cannot knock it. Give it some time before expecting it to go up. It has not cracked from a technical point of view.

WATCH

He is fascinated by what all these Chinese companies are doing. He hasn’t made any investment in China. Makes him nervous. He prefers North American cos. But he would look at them if there is a significant pullback. (Analysts’ price target is $230)

BUY

Alibaba (BABA-N) or Amazon (AMZN-Q)? You can buy both and he would. Don't use multiples to under valuations, but rather look at invested capital. Estimates 15-20% return on invested capital for Amazon. Alibaba is equal if not slightly better than Amazon. 18% ROIC. Loves both, but would slightly prefer Alibaba.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Doesn't feel this is a value stock, but one reason it has been so successful in China, really has to do with the population. He would like to see it a little lower. This is one you can buy on a correction and then hold it long-term.

BUY

This is China's largest global online market place and is growing very rapidly. It’s not inexpensive. Trading at something like 40X next year's earnings estimate. There are political risks, because it is in China. The structural theme of online retail and marketplace is not one that is going to go away anytime soon. This should grow 50% this year and maybe another 30%-40% next year. Estimates are being revised higher.

COMMENT

Bank of America (BAC-N), Boeing (BA-N) or Ali Baba (BABA-N)? His choice would definitely be Bank of America. He lukewarm on Ali Baba compared to a Google or Amazon.

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