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Bank of AmericaBACCOMMENTNov 06, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
Likes the money centre banks. Will do well with a normalized yield curve, as it enhances net interest margins. Fed signalling interest rates coming down should depress the short end of the curve, with the long end maintaining itself somewhat.
The group is trading at about a 30% discount to normalized valuations of around 13.5x earnings. That carries through to book value, trading at discounts to historical norms. He owns JPM, BAC, and MS, and that's where he'd put money.
Still owns it. BAC earnings beat recently. Fixed income and capital markets are still growing. Is trading below book value and pays a 3.5% dividend yield. During Covid, they invested in mortgage-backed securities, and they're now under water by $130 billion because rates are going up. That's an overhang that will continue until rates stabilize. But this isn't a risky regional bank, but diversified with strong segments.
Reporting top- and bottom-line beats today
He had sold the banks (MS, BAC, but is long JPM) to buy QQQs, and he stands by that rotation. If any banks decline, it would be the regionals, which he's avoided since the spring crisis. His outlook on the banks is limited, given regulations restricting hoarding capital on the balance sheet, which will impede loan growth. Plus, the economy will start to contract. MS and BAC are good companies, but he'd rather buy the debt of these stocks, because their balance sheets will be fortified.
All banks were tainted with the US regional bank meltdown. Rising rates aren't helping. Normally, higher rates are better for banks but that may not be happening this time since some US mortgage rates are locked in for 30 years. We need to see rates stabilize before the banks bounce back. Take your losses now before tax-loss selling happens in December.
Very interested in US banks, especially at these levels. Pulled back from $30s. Headwinds right now. Raising rates so quickly makes waves, which impact large financial institutions. Less than 0.9x book value. Capturing regional deposits. Executing well. A reasonable holding, not in as bad shape as Canadian banks.
Banks have had troubles. Trading below book value, at 8x earnings. Early cycle vehicles, and we'll get there fairly soon. We'll either go through a recession, or have one declared null and void. Has $100B of underwater bonds, and the market's nervous. It's only a problem if they're forced to sell, as they'll earn less. Don't write it off just yet.
Holds about 10% of deposits in US. 9x earnings, almost 1x book, not expensive. Balance sheet has a lot of longer term debt, and people worry about this with higher rates. Diversified. Reducing costs and implementing AI. Must grow organically, not by acquisition. As economy does well, so well they. Loan losses are not a big issue. Good yield of 3.08%.
(Analysts’ price target is $35.92)
Sell Bank of America (BAC-N) and Buy Crombie REIT (CRR.UN-T)? As the long-term rates on US government bonds backed up from November of last year by about 1.5% to almost 3% this summer, all interest-rate proxies backed off in price, including REITs. His long-term view is that rates stay range bound 2.5%-3.25%, so the damage has largely been done. Because of this, interest-rate securities can do a little better here and they are. However, in REITs you have to pick your spot and he would prefer industrial REITs that are more economically sensitive with a little better ability to raise rents, as opposed to consumer REITs, which are more consumer driven. Prefers something like Granite REIT (GRT.UN-T) or Pure Industrial (AAR.UN-T), both of which would be more attractive than Crombie. Bank of America is more of a growth oriented story and you will probably get higher dividend growth but a very low base.