Bank of AmericaBACTOP PICKApr 19, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 23, 2026. Market Open.
Likes the money centre banks. Will do well with a normalized yield curve, as it enhances net interest margins. Fed signalling interest rates coming down should depress the short end of the curve, with the long end maintaining itself somewhat.
The group is trading at about a 30% discount to normalized valuations of around 13.5x earnings. That carries through to book value, trading at discounts to historical norms. He owns JPM, BAC, and MS, and that's where he'd put money.
Still owns it. BAC earnings beat recently. Fixed income and capital markets are still growing. Is trading below book value and pays a 3.5% dividend yield. During Covid, they invested in mortgage-backed securities, and they're now under water by $130 billion because rates are going up. That's an overhang that will continue until rates stabilize. But this isn't a risky regional bank, but diversified with strong segments.
Reporting top- and bottom-line beats today
He had sold the banks (MS, BAC, but is long JPM) to buy QQQs, and he stands by that rotation. If any banks decline, it would be the regionals, which he's avoided since the spring crisis. His outlook on the banks is limited, given regulations restricting hoarding capital on the balance sheet, which will impede loan growth. Plus, the economy will start to contract. MS and BAC are good companies, but he'd rather buy the debt of these stocks, because their balance sheets will be fortified.
All banks were tainted with the US regional bank meltdown. Rising rates aren't helping. Normally, higher rates are better for banks but that may not be happening this time since some US mortgage rates are locked in for 30 years. We need to see rates stabilize before the banks bounce back. Take your losses now before tax-loss selling happens in December.
Very interested in US banks, especially at these levels. Pulled back from $30s. Headwinds right now. Raising rates so quickly makes waves, which impact large financial institutions. Less than 0.9x book value. Capturing regional deposits. Executing well. A reasonable holding, not in as bad shape as Canadian banks.
Banks have had troubles. Trading below book value, at 8x earnings. Early cycle vehicles, and we'll get there fairly soon. We'll either go through a recession, or have one declared null and void. Has $100B of underwater bonds, and the market's nervous. It's only a problem if they're forced to sell, as they'll earn less. Don't write it off just yet.
Holds about 10% of deposits in US. 9x earnings, almost 1x book, not expensive. Balance sheet has a lot of longer term debt, and people worry about this with higher rates. Diversified. Reducing costs and implementing AI. Must grow organically, not by acquisition. As economy does well, so well they. Loan losses are not a big issue. Good yield of 3.08%.
(Analysts’ price target is $35.92)
He looks for sectors/themes that are going through significant shifts that can give a long runway for the industry and companies to be revalued. The 2nd biggest bank in the US, trading at just under 1X BV, and can go higher. Assuming they can grow BV, that would be even better. It will be helped by rising interest rates. They will get the CCAR assessment in June as to whether they can return more capital to shareholders. Generating a ton of cash, so dividends should continue to accelerate. US banks started to perform in June of last year and have just had a classic pullback towards the 150-day moving average, which gives investors a great entry point. This could be a 5-year theme. Dividend yield of 1.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $26.)