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TSE:BB
(Worst call ever made.) This was a name that had done quite well for his clients from about 2004 all the way up to 2011. It was early 2011 when US analysts started to turn violently negative while Canadian analysts were still defending it. Has tried to pare down. Probably not too bad to continue to hold and wait and see.
About a month ago, the stock was moving at a triangle. It was consolidating at a tighter and tighter range. The thing with a symmetrical triangle is that you never guess which way it is going to break out. In this case, it broke downwards. $8-$9 is its support and he probably wouldn’t look at this until it gets there and proves that it can bounce off of that level.
Earnings will be coming out tomorrow. This company has done a very good job. You’ll have to see where sales go from now on and you’ll have to see a big uptick from the institutional side as opposed to the retail side. Very good product. The issue now is, can they move into the enterprise space and do they have an uptake from their traditional customer base.
He cannot figure out how this company is going to do down the road. He is on the sidelines. If there is a big miss, those shares will come down hard, but if it is good news, then there is certainly some upside. He can’t get his head around the service business. He wants to see a few quarters of positive momentum.
Doesn’t expect you will see a whole lot of excitement in the next 3-6 months. New products are out and the company has sort of come back from the dead. Now it needs the next thing. It’s going to be around. It has the cash. Has some good products. It can compete but the global industry is different as there are more players out there. It’s a tough business.
There should be catalysts over the next 6 months so we will be able to ascertain what is going to happen to this company. Likely there will be some sort of corporate activity where they go private or another tech company takes them over. Thinks there is value in the company at the $10 range. Still have a subscriber base of 72 million that are paying the service fees so that is a cash flow stream although it may be declining over time. Too speculative to buy.