Ian HardacreBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B.TODON'T BUYJul 17, 2001

Solid progress in supply chain management. Great with debt repayment. Solid order activity. Transformed themselves. Sold off on macro concerns of pre-owned inventory, this is overdone. He models 46% EPS growth, trading under 10x. Under-owned. Attractive here.

He's been in business for 30 years, and BBD has never been a good long-term stock. Now, it's in the right space with industrials. The stock is in the bottom of its trading range; if it breaks below that, this will probably return to $30. BBD has a had a decent run this, year the 30-year chart is a heartbreaker.

Canadian tax payer bailout not working out. 
Very high debt levels - not founder owned/run.
Would not recommend investing in.
Management team not strong. 

Has a research file on it, but hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Pure play on premium business jet market. Making intelligent moves such as diversifying into parts and maintenance. One concern is that ratio of order intake to sales slipped during the quarter. Bullishly predisposed to it.

It has had great volatility over time and now recently as well. The FMV has been pushed up rapidly by analysts' earnings expectations. It is now trading at 12X BV where it has peaked at before. Downside risk is 42%.

He's been watching it, as it's regained momentum. Streamlined from its legacy business, now focused entirely on private aircraft. Business prospects are getting better. Private aircraft are big-ticket, discretionary. Order book could get cold if corporate profits decline. Facts have changed, he's changed his mind, and the company is now investment-grade at least.

It has always been over-leveraged and is still that way today. It has had to dump positions just to stay afloat. It is in a decent place with the jet business but not enough to warrant buying it.

Current share price presenting buying opportunity.
Company recovering from recent problems.
Future is brighter for the business.
Cheap share price relative to peers.