Caterpillar (CAT)

(A Top Pick Feb 13’17, Down 64.73%) He thought it had down legs. Global growth was greater than expected. They restructured so much that their earnings grew. It is still a cyclical industry. He could see being short of this stock.

AAPL-Q vs. CAT-N. CAT-N is machinery and has been a hero. They both really pulled back. CAT-N had a 22% earnings beat last quarter. AAPL-Q is really the iPhone X or 10 story. They missed on units. It is not a lost leader but the concept applies. This will be used like the iPad with augmented reality. You are in a very expensive period of time – an air pocket. AAPL-Q is a great company, however.

(A Top Pick Nov 16/16. Down 52%.) *Short* At the time, this was trading at over 30 times earnings, with basically 3 years of down earnings. It was trading at a ridiculously high multiple. They missed on the past 5 quarters, and the stock had run up on the idea that Donald Trump was going to build the wall using thousands of Caterpillar tractors. He underestimated the global recovery, which helped sales. On top of that, they operationally improved their margins to such a degree that earnings recovery has grown through the estimates in the last three quarters. Has shorted again recently because, although a good story, it is trading at 25X what he thinks will be their peak earnings.

This was basically left for dead and everybody was very negative on it. It hit a low in late January 2016, and has rebounded nicely. It was a long, long decline for the better part of 2 years, and then finally started to turn around, and it is breaking out again. This is its first break-out in 6 years. This is probably a pretty positive thing for everybody in the world, because it means very, very hard-core resources and commodities are getting moved around.

It has done well through a difficult period. 80% of the revenue from that sector was just replacement parts. This equipment wears out and has to be replaced and maintained. It has the fastest earnings revisions of any S&P company. (Analysts’ target: $125.00).

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 57%.) *Short* He closed out the Short on November 15. Overall, they have done really well, and certainly defied many people who thought a Short was a good idea.

Relative to what they’ve been through, this has really done well. 75% of revenues are global and they are in over 180 countries. Have had a few very tough years from an environment perspective, and have held up very well. Although things are turning around, he would not be a buyer. A lot of their business is in emerging market countries where brand isn’t as important as price, and their main competitor is much cheaper. The stock is way too expensive at around 30X PE.

Things are slowly improving post- the election. It is one of the highest quality players in this area.

The perceived outlook from investors is that this company is well positioned to benefit from infrastructure spending and the global mining boom. Based on the valuation, it is trading above its historical multiple. A lot of the good news is already built into the share price. This is not an overly cheap stock.

*Short* They’ve missed expectations 14 quarters in a row, 5 down-years of earnings. Management just said expectations were too high for next year. On their website, they are selling used equipment at a discount, rather than new equipment. Doesn’t see where growth is coming from. Dividend yield of 3.13%. (Analysts’ price target is $98.45.)

Had a great deal of difficulty for a number of years. They made an untimely move into mining way back. It was untimely. They went way down because commodity prices and economic growth in China both declined. They just reported okay results recently. It is not a near term story. Future good news it built into the stock price so he would avoid it.

*Short* This has a little over $3 in earnings, and is trading at over 30X forward earnings. They’ve missed earnings in the past couple of quarters. The machinery capital spending business is slowing down because the mining industry has slowed down. They are starting to sell their own used equipment on their website, because there is not as much demand for the new stuff. The price is dropping at a 5% annual rate on what they are selling,. Dividend yield of 3.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $82.17.)

Any time a company is faced with such a tough environment, they always look at costs. Feels that with the rotation from mining into infrastructure, a lot of stocks have really done well. However, we still haven’t seen the bottom of the downturn.

Canada has had a huge bounce, and none of these prices make any sense when you look at fundamentals, including mining. His model price is $47.51, a negative 38%. Dividend yield of 4%.

When you look at a collapse in an asset class, such as energy in the last 18 months, he has never seen where it bottoms and turns around, and becomes a new leader right away. We have had a great rally in energy and there is some risk that as we get back the cost of production, new production will come on. This company had a tremendous rally since February, but is looking a lot like the energy and metals sectors, and there is some risk that it runs into resistance here and could roll over.