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Opinions Peter Hodson
Cargojet IncCJT.TOCOMMENTDec 15, 2017
Peter HodsonStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
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It has good forward guidance with 25% earnings growth predicted. It is technically a little overbought so it may pull back $10 to $15.
David Burrows
There is little or no risk with solid long-term contracts with large companies like Amazon. It is managing costs well but volumes are weaker. It has good management along with good margins. It trades at 7X EBITDA which is the best price in a long time. He sold it as a tax loss but plans to buy back later in the year.
Out of favour right now, lumped in with slowing e-commerce. Monopoly for overnight air cargo delivery. Long-term contracts, and they get paid even if volumes are low. Very good EBITDA margins. At some point it will stabilize, better days ahead. Good time to start buying.
Terrific company. Will be around for the long haul, and will find a profitable niche. Hard to know how competitive the space will get. When passenger flights aren't full, they pick up cargo capacity, which steals CJT's lunch. He's waiting for an entry point to re-enter.
Cargojet did well over the pandemic and generally is doing better than the industry. It is now at 20 X earnings down from 30 X before. However it is facing some headwinds since the passenger airlines are recovering and they carry a lot of cargo as well as passengers,.
Short vs. long really matters to a company like this. Economic and e-commerce slowdowns really affect it. Not filling planes, so revenue is hurt. Excellent time to add a high quality company. Monopoly in Canada. Adding new routes. Planes are expensive. Short-term bumpy, long term you'll be just fine.
(A Top Pick May 10/22, Down 29%)
It has pulled back along with its international expansion plans. Cargo capacity has increased worldwide so there is too much supply. However it has a near monopoly on overnight cargo in Canada. He may add more.
Robert Lauzon
This is driven by the economy, sales and web transactions. Has some very, very good monopolistic situations in Canada with a couple of very, very large customers, including Canada Post. It probably has some potential to go from here and will have a good 2018. With giant contracts, a lot of investors come on board in anticipation of those contracts. As they start hitting the revenue growth and earnings growth, some investors may start exiting, so doesn't think you are going to see as great a run over the next 2 years, as there has been in the past 3, but it will have a decent year. A nice solid company.