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TSE:ERF

Enerplus Corp (ERF.TO)

26.78
-0.93 (3.36%)
as of Jun 3, 2024, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
235 watching
0
COMMENT

This has had a slow downtrend for the last 12 months. But seasonality kicks in during the summer for oil stocks, and the US dollar will help this dramatically if the USD breaks down. ERF pays a decent yield. Good management. The current price south of $10, we hit it in 2015, and faced resistance in 2016 with several touches in 2017. If it keeps falling, it will fall to $6-7. July should push this to $11, and it could move back to $16.

TOP PICK
For four years, during the energy bear market, this stock held its own. It just beat its earnings estimates today. Trades at 10 times earnings and 1.4 times book. A strong cash flow generator if oil prices hold. Yield 1.01% (Analysts’ price target is $17.36)
TOP PICK
They are managed extremely well. The Canadian content is actually a small percentage. It has lots of opportunity to grow. They have cleaned up the balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $17.36)
TOP PICK
Trades at an enterprise value to adjusted cash flow at 4.2x vs. peers at 6x, so ERF has been really beat up. Showing a nice uptrend in the past two years. Had a good, sustainable buyback program happening. Great cash flow. It's entering seasonality from late-April to August. (Analysts’ price target is $17.36)
WAIT
Have to look at the oil price first. After last year's dip, some companies have been stagnant. They worked hard to fix their balance sheet, so they had a better recovery. Waiting for the next leg higher. Wouldn't buy now. Very well run. He wouldn't buy, simply because he doesn't buy energy stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $17.00)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 23/18, Down 13%) Derives 83% of its revenue from US plays, including shale. This will do very well, but all oil has been under pressure. He still likes the company.
COMMENT
A great energy company. Good managers with most of their oil in the Bakken, good. He owns enough oil elsewhere.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 22/17, Up 18%) One of the few energy stocks this year with positive returns. He exited, because it's price momentum fell off this fall, though not as badly as its peers. It still scores well in valuation. Good assets. A good stock, but in a tough sector.
WAIT
Likely she will purchase soon. They have some land in Colorado. They do not have a lot of Canadian assets and are somewhat insulated by the lower Canadian pricing. Should have tremendous free cash flow in the coming years. They have very little debt.
TOP PICK

They generate 80% of their revenues from their US operations. They are not affected by the Canadian oil price gap. A solid business. Very well run.

TOP PICK

They are raising their capital budget, which is always a good sign. (Analysts’ target: $21.77).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 11/2018, Up 1 %) Canadian company, but about 80% of production is in US, so they get world price for oil. The Canadian listing gives them the dividend tax credit and it’s well managed.

TOP PICK

They're getting 82% of their production from the U.S., so they're getting world prices in American dollars, even though they're a Canadian company. They're growing. (Analysts' price target: $19.23)

BUY

It is a solid long for him. It was a Top Pick not too long ago. Recent price momentum is fine as is price valuation. They beat on the recent quarter.

COMMENT

He’s not really excited about energy, and gets a feeling we are just being manipulated. He likes big cap energy in the US. This closed at $13.29, and his model price is $17.30, a 30% upside. It’s one Canadian stock that actually has a distribution that is actually lower than its income. Thinks it goes higher, but there is so much opportunity in the US, that it’s hard for him to recommend this.

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