Stockchase Opinions

Christopher BlumasFranco-Nevada Corp.FNV.TOWEAK BUYSep 17, 2019

One of the few gold companies to consider, to create value. Others have destroyed shareholder value. FNV is based on a royalty structure and has done well over time. Problem is the current valuation is now high. (He owns no gold now.) In gold, look at the streamers or hard gold itself.
$123.30

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$304.64

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

precious metals
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SELL

Sell today. First place to find support would be $134. If not there, then at $105. Really depends on USD, which is weak. Certain commodities you can't hold forever. Indicators are making a new leg down.

DON'T BUY
Set it and forget it?

Hasn't studied in depth, could be interested. Hears that management is the best. Likes companies that do something non-correlated with the rest of a portfolio. Hurt by stake in Panama mine. Low-risk way to get commodity exposure, but foreign assets increase that risk. Not a big fan of mining, but if he did want a royalty play, this would be a contender. 

TOP PICK

Biggest and best-of-breed in the category. Likes business model for its exposure to commodity price and upside optionality to more reserve and resource discovery. Insulates shareholders from operating and capital cost overruns endemic to mining. Well diversified by geography and operator. Bit of non-gold commodity exposure. 

Timely right now. Price has pulled back a lot since the summer, because biggest royalty interest is in Panama, operated by FM. That mine accounts for about 22% of Franco's NAV, and market's shaved about 30% off shares, which gives a good margin of safety. Good entry opportunity. Believes arbitration will prevail in its favour, which is what happens historically. Yield is 1.2%.

(Analysts’ price target is $200.67)
TOP PICK

Weakness in share price causing opportunity. Forced mine closure in Panama has more value in assets than market giving credit for. Company has no debt and is large funder of mining investment opportunities. Good for long term investors. Is a core holding in portfolio. 

TOP PICK

The finest goldminer in the world. Are being penalized by the recent Panama decision which forced them to halt operations. That mine comprises 15% of NAV, and yet shares have sank 30%. This is an excellent buying opportunity. He bets the Panama decision will reverse; the mine amounts to 5% of Panama's GDP and over 25% of export earnings, and could eventually pay damages up to US$10 billion.

(Analysts’ price target is $148.32)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

He steers clear of the gold sector, as everything depends on the commodity price. You could look at streaming, such as FNV. It is quite expensive, but if you have your heart set, add on a pullback.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 09/22, Up 9%)

The go-to gold name for retail investors. Let's you sleep well at night. They're insulated from capital costs and overruns from gold and silver production. Also, they benefit from upside in commodity price through optionality. A perennial outperforming in mining.

TOP PICK

Likes base metals more because of where we are in the cycle, but gold and gold stocks are sending signs that they want to break out. Testing the upper range. Gold stocks look to be putting in a multi-month low and set to run. FNV looks set to test $200, breaking above highs of 2020 would be really positive. Gold is one of his best ideas. Yield is 0.93%.

(Analysts’ price target is $221.62)
DON'T BUY

If you're going to be in gold, a royalty company is the way to go. King Kong of the royalty firms. He's never been a gold bug. It doesn't always protect you from inflation. If the world is taking a nosedive, how will gold help you? He's not sure on timing. His experience investing in gold has always been uneven.

WAIT

If you're looking for gold exposure, worth considering. Watch and wait, as the sector's been strong. Interest rate cuts would be negative catalysts for gold names. Enter on a pullback.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 02/22, Down 3%) He plans to hold through the course of 2023.
TOP PICK
Very strong chart. Strong management team. Good assets.
BUY
He recently added. He's getting more bullish on gold. Cost inflation is an issue for gold miners, but FNV is just a streamer. It has about 35 employees, incredible. Well run. Dividend growth. No operational risk. The only way he'll ever play gold.
TOP PICK
Granddaddy of royalty companies. Clean commodity exposure mainly to gold. Insulated from endemic cost overruns. Diversified geographically, by operator and metal. Long-term optionality on all projects. Will do well as gold gets back into gear. Yield is 0.95%. (Analysts’ price target is $207.06)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Good way to get exposure to mining and commodities. Rising interest rates and China shutdown impacting company. Good time to buy on weakness.