Great job at meaningfully buying back stock.
Setting bar high for return of capital to shareholders.
Trading at premium to peers.
Quality company that is a safe bet for long term shareholders.
Company trading at slight premium to Suncor.
Low risk name trading at 15x cash flow.
Expecting a ~$90 share price.
Not enough return for risk in energy sector.
Long-term player in the space. Doesn't see XOM buying the rest of IMO. Security of supply is still important. The industry is continuing to improve in terms of environmental impact. He owns CNQ instead, one of the best run with great free cashflow.
(A Top Pick Jan 07/20, Down 17%) COVID-19 crushed this. It was trading at book value a year ago. He still likes it even though it has been painful. He is sticking with it.
Investors are more comfortable with their oil sands operation and yet it is discounted in the stock. There is no compelling reason to own it. The valuation is also not overly compelling. There are other names.
A large cap energy producer that he used to cover. The Canadian political landscape is an impediment. They need more takeaway capacity. The current supply-demand balance is too high. Inventory is high and the balance is out of equilibrium.
If you want to wade back into the oil patch this is probably the one with the strongest balance sheet. The advantage is the long life of the oil sands as they don’t need to explore for new oil. Most of the barrels in their reserves will be sold at higher prices. They also have downstream integration. It is a relatively safe play in the oil patch.
(A Top Pick Jan 03/19, Up 4%) They have done virtually nothing in the past year. It's indicative of the whole energy sector. It's now trading at its book value, which hasn't happened since 1995 during the oil fears. He suspects oil will go higher, though it might not soar. If it goes up, companies like this that are cheap could do better than what anybody expects. Risks are very minimal since it's bottomed out already.
Oil is up $3 with a possible war in the middle east. The stock is at a terrific value. Good upside potential. If everything works out well, it could have a huge upside in a recovery. (Analysts’ price target is $36.53)
He likes the dividend. You have to go back to 1992 before you find it trading so cheap to book value. It has 15-20% upside over the next year.
In uncertain times, good companies like this bring comfort. Yield 2.41% (Analysts’ price target is $38.90)
Stock hasn't done anything in the last while. It moves with the price of oil. Doesn't have the beta of others, so doesn't provide the juice for capital gains. And other companies have a better dividend. Only 20% debt. Book value is $31.48. Not a big fan of the integrated companies.
A black cloud hovering over Canadian oil sector and until this clears up, he would avoid. Yield is low on this name. He would look at a company that pays a higher dividend and has more capital appreciation potential.
What's the importance of target price increases? Targets are not important to him in the oil sector, because oil is in a cloud. Oil needs to see more takeovers. IMO is well-run and solid, but the oil space is in a trouble time.