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Eli Lilly & Co.LLYDON'T BUYNov 27, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Novo and Eli Lilly have both run up, but there's still more room to go, given the strong demand for their weight-loss drug. Insurers will probably pay for these drugs, because without them consumers couldn't afford them. Sure, others are developing their own drugs, but it's not easy. Pfizer just announced it's giving up.
A winner over the last year. Obesity drugs are going to be everywhere, and sales estimates keep increasing. Valuation's moved very high on momentum. Catalyst for the next decade or longer will be pill form (set for approval in 2024) vs. injection, as well as tweaks to performance. The stock will trade on drug performance and market sentiment.
The weight-loss jobs are the biggest innovation in pharma since the Covid vaccine. By market cap, LLY is the most important drug company in the world. Their Ozempic drug has been a huge successful, reducing weight and heart attacks. A negative side effect likely would have turned up by now, so he expect sales volume to keep rising, up to over $120 billion annually.
Cheap on this year’s earnings, but not so cheap on next year’s. Part of the problem with this company is that one of their major drugs Cymbalta goes off patent at the end of 2013. In the 3rd quarter this drug was over 20% of their revenues, so they are looking at a pretty significant drop in revenues in 2014 and a more significant drop in earnings. A more interesting one would be Pfizer (PFE-N) as there are catalysts for change as they are looking at breaking this company up into 3 different divisions starting in 3 years but will start reporting on those divisions individually next year. He holds no pharmaceuticals at this time.