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TSE:LUN
(A Top Pick Aug 2013. Up 25.82%.) (All 3 Top Picks are 1) out of favour 2) high Short position and 3 ) displaying positive relative performance. An ideal setting for a Short Squeeze.) He was a little early on this pick. It was out of favour, as copper stocks are. Has a 11.3% Short position on it. Relative Performance is widening against the TSX.
Kind of hits all the right spots. Copper is the majority of its EBITDA, but you also get the nickel leverage. Their Eagle mine in Michigan is coming on next year, which will take their nickel exposure to about 30%. You also have nice, steady European operations where you get about 15% zinc exposure, which he feels will be a great commodity sometime in the second half of 2015. This hits the three major base metals in terms of exposure.. Have adjustable CapX exposure. A cash flow machine right now, but there will be expansion phases.
Sell or Hold? You always want to know why you bought a stock. Did you buy because you thought copper prices would go up, or that the company maintained a conservative balance sheet or had exposure to zinc and some nickel? Regarding fundamentals, copper is probably neutral, but zinc and nickel are looking pretty good and the company has executed well. He would take some profit, but continue holding it as a core position until the cycle plays out.
Produces primarily copper, zinc and lead. A lot of what is going to happen in the base metal sector is going to be dependent on the hope for global recovery. When Canada burst out of the stocks on Jan 2, everything kind of came up because there was a general hope of a nice global recovery in global growth, which would carry the metals higher. That has come under some cloud lately because of issues in China. Fair Market Value is a fair amount higher than its current price, but right now it is just balancing. Good potential but……
On his radar screen but is looking for a little bit more positive direction and momentum on copper prices. Copper and the other base metal complexes have had a very hard time as a result of concerns over China. A little bit nervous about China given the recent data on inflation as well as the lending situation with some of the shadow banking in the country. This price is a very good place to establish an investment in the company. Extremely clean balance sheet.
Hold based on the turn on base metals.