Mastercard Inc. (MA)

You can buy this and crawl into a cave for 10 years then become wealthy. They have very high ROE. A tremendous moat around their business. It's really MA and Visa. Europe and developing countries invite a huge runway for growth.

6 month outlook? His work suggests these are at extremely high valuations. MA-N has 60% downside risk according to his models, trading at 40 times book value. He would stay away from both V-N and MA-N.

He owns Visa, with a chart similar to MA. For MA it's been too easy for too long. It's low-vol, offers growth, boasts a wide moat, BUT there's beneath the surface investors will question valuations of the credit card companies. So, they might come down a little. But you're fine holding this for 25 years.

MA vs. Visa He owns neither, though they have performed incredibly well. Don't buy them now in this part of the cycle. He likes American Express for its much-lower valuation, and have performed well, too, but buy that only on a big pullback.

He owns Mastercard instead. As the world grows, electronic transactions will continue to grow. His investment has more than doubled since 2018. He would hold your nose and buy either Visa or Mastercard. The fundamentals are great, but recognize it is quite expensive here. The key is to know when to sell and take profit.

MA vs. V vs. AXP. Wouldn't touch Visa or Mastercard, because they're extremely expensive, unless they have a 50% pullback. But AXP is a whole lot cheaper on price to book. It's the only one with visible upside. But it's bang up against technical resistance at 3.5x book. Hasn't been able to get any further. Visa and Mastercard are a lot more profitable than AXP. AXP has more limited downside.

AmEx, Visa or Mastercard? They're all great. Visa and MC are pure-play payment processors vs. AmEx which is also the issuing bank. They play on electronic payments with people buying more and more online, but V and MC reaches a wider breadth of customers/users. AmEx still focuses on richer people. V and MC will always have a higher multiple because they're viewed as tech companies. They're all great holds for 5-10 years.