McDonaldsMCDCOMMENTJan 03, 2007Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
It is adding more stores and raising prices by 10% which people are paying. More middle and higher income people are coming into their restaurants along with lower income customers eating there less often. It has spent 7 years improving the burgers and is now increasing the size of them. It reinvests profits more than the other chains.
MCD is a mature fast food franchisor that is now trading at 21.4x times' Forward P/E (historical averages in the last five years range from 21.2x to 25.2x). The balance sheet has net debt of $47B, and a net debt/EBITDA of 3.2x, which is quite leveraged, but given the predictability of the business, we think it is still okay. The company has generated healthy cash flow over the years, most of which has been used for dividend increases and share repurchases. Although long-term growth may be affected somewhat due to a healthier lifestyle, we think MCD could do well over the short term given the pricing power of the capital-light business model as a franchisor, which is valuable in an inflationary environment. We would nor really be concerned about the weight loss drugs. They could even have a net positive impact if consumers believe they are healthier overall and want to 'treat' themselves. Overall, we like MCD as a solid dividend grower name, and we are okay to add some here at the current valuation.
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He holds it in more conservative portfolios. Looking back long-term, you can't get a chart that's much better. Yield is 2.1%, which he expects to remain stable and go higher over time. Expects 6.4% dividend growth, very strong. Great balance sheet and cashflow, well run. Low beta, 3/4 that of the S&P.