Greg NewmanNew Flyer Industries Inc.NFI.TORISKYAug 16, 2023

It makes electric buses which is a tough business for consistent results. It could be a bumpy ride with too many unhappy shareholders. It is healing a little bit and if buying use a stop loss at $11.50

You can't plan for black swan events. Portfolio management is your best friend. Great run since last May. If you bought at $8.50, and the stock's down today from around $13, he'd take some off the table but keep your position. Support around $11.60, $1 below where it is right now.

A problematic stock. They were behind on debt payments, but have worked things out with creditors. As one of the last busmakers in North America, they will benefit from future bus orders from cities. It has risen from recent (extreme) lows, due to settling financing problems.  A riskier-than-normal stock. If sales tick up, shares could leap by multiples, but who knows when?

Chart indicating a good time to buy. Recent turn around from downward trend. Looks as if company has reversed fortunes. Base has broken out which is positive news. 

It's gone wrong for him in the past, but opportunities still continue to grow--they're the only maker of EV buses in North America that suits the Buy-America rule. Covid and supply chains were tough for the company, sure, but better days lie ahead. There's less competition and more opportunity. He bought a lot of shares at $9. The valuation should be better. Financing issues are sorted out.

It has completed a $300 financing and the number of shares has risen by 40%. It has a record order backlog of EV buses but profit margins are expected to be weaker in the next couple of years. Watch for insider buying.

Canadian bus maker plagued by equipment problems (can't find inventory).
Inflation making business hard to generate profits.
Wait to see how business goes before buying.
Management needs to prove themselves. 
Recent issuance if equity not good for shareholders. 

Lots of supply problems, but dissipating rapidly. Quite a debt issue. Inflation caused losses on contracts. Had to issue shares. Company will survive, but how will the shareholders do? Stock's probably bottomed, but it will be a long slog.

Fantastically run business. Covid shortages hurt, weren't able to deliver buses, so inventory built up, stressed the balance sheet. Demand is great, but they can't supply. Looking to renegotiate debt. At cusp of supply challenges easing and turning around. Watch the next couple of months. Reports next week. 

Negative run. Production and operational issues. Down here, a lot of the bad news is in. Balance sheet needs a little bit of work. Strong product line. Gone from a darling to a dog, and that's when he starts looking. Still not cheap on today's valuation, as they're coming off losses. Lots of potential to drive sales, lots of demand for the product. He's taken a small position and will watch the next couple of quarters.

It made a lot of deals where buses were sold at fixed prices but its costs are higher now due to supply chain issues. The company will survive but has to re-negotiate with its banks, which is always painful. It is a good company in a bad situation, therefore look elsewhere.

On a longer term chart, you can see what's going on. A falling knife. Longer term, consistent down trend. Avoid. He loves industrials, but you want the ones with charts up and to the right. NFI is not along for the ride, and when you see that much of a divergence, it's a big warning flag. See his Top Picks.

Transit bus manufacturer.
Does not own shares in the company.
Failed to execute on production.
Balance sheet very leveraged. 

Owns shares in company.
Supply chain problems going away.
Current share price presenting good buying opportunity.
Excellent prospects for the company.
Bus demand will continue to rise.