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TSE:NFI

New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.TO)

22.69
-0.09 (0.40%)
as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
378 watching
0
BUY
Leaders in North America. Ridiculously cheap. Management's done a great job over the years. Institutional managers have been bailing because growth has slowed. Value investors are slowly coming in. Hang on at this price. He'd invest at these prices. Really good dividend, huge buybacks. Basically an oligopoly. Steady business over the long run, though lumpy between quarters.
TOP PICK
They've missed guidance in recent quarters and has come off, but there's now support at $30. You can trade it around $35 or hold to the mid-$40s. This won't turn around quickly, because of tariff issues. They have a good backlog and track record. (Analysts’ price target is $43.00)
DON'T BUY
It was a darling for a while, and is now off quite a bit (it's halved to $30). They make buses, so once you sell them, you must wait for cities to order more. They need to show one or two quarters of growth for this to rise to the high-$30s.
TOP PICK
They have been so aggressive at moving toward hybrid and electric busses. Municipal governments want to cut costs and meet climate goals. They are more interested in low carbon transit options. He is thrilled to see them moving so far ahead with hybrid and electric busses. It can do well. The city of Toronto just bought a bunch of these busses. (Analysts’ price target is $48.14)
DON'T BUY

It was a high-flyer a few years ago. They've increase their dividend. The bus market has been challenged. Most of their clients are US cities which can't go into deficits, so that hits NFI's orders.

DON'T BUY
NFI has pulled back for some time over concerns of a slowing US economy. Buses are a mature sector, too. They bought a company to source the after-market, but that resulted in soft earnings.
BUY
It's taken quite a dip recently after a good run-up. Now, it's a buy. He follows it. The multiple has fallen to a reasonable level. Nothing hugely negative has hit them. Good operators.
DON'T BUY

Sold it last summer because he felt the bus cycle ended in early 2018. A flag was NFI's bad Q1-2018. There were lower orders. Busses are in long, multi-year cycles. The 4% yield is decent which you can collect on its own. The stock has probably bottomed, but the stock (and cycle) won't rise for a year or even two.

DON'T BUY

This bus manufacturer also has a service offering as well. There had been fears that a slowdown in the US economy would hurt orders. She does not see a compelling reason to own this as the earnings are not defensible.

TOP PICK
The cheapest stock in the TSX-300. It was pummeled down. They are the leader of the three bus manufacturers. He expects growth to pick up. It is under 9 times earnings. They generate great free cash flow and are virtually recession proof. It should grow to over $50. (Analysts’ price target is $48.14)
DON'T BUY
It was a high-flying stock until they ran into management and competition problems. He never got excited by NFI, failing to find their moat and feeling that their balance sheet wasn't that great. That said, he's never done a deep dive into NFI. Not on his radar. He'd need to see serious earnings growth first.
DON'T BUY
Average down? He wouldn't. He used to own this. He hasn't looked at NFI lately. Take a good look at their financials.
DON'T BUY
Cyclical, so you have to deal with the ups and downs of manufacturing. Was the favourite child in Canada, but now it's come down. If you've doubled your money, sell half. Remember, it's a bus company. You can hold it, but it's volatile, and he doesn't want to own something like that.
BUY
Yesterday they released sales figures and they were not as robust as some were expecting. He is kicking the tires hard on it now.
BUY
Down about 12% today. They put out Q4 sales results and the 2019 outlook. He owned it previously but was stopped out recently. The challenge is that a client has backed out of a large 100 bus order, which ended up going to auction and slowed buying interest in new orders. Buyers can't decide which energy source to use (gasoline, natural gas, electric, etc.), which is complicating the business. He thinks longer term it is oversold right now and is a buy.
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