Nike Inc (NKE)

A good time to get into retail? Retail has been a tough spot. A global brand and one that has certainly performed well. Nike has been a beneficiary of the trend in athletic leisure space. He would pay closer attention to Under Armor (UA-N) which has been the laggard. Nike is a good brand around for ages and has generated good returns for shareholders historically.

He stays away from this. Had owned it for a very long time, but exited it 2-3 years ago because of issues with their inventory and how they were pricing their assortment, as well as the channels they were positioned in. Those remain as concerns for him.

It's the North American segment where they’ve struggled. It goes back to consumer preferences. This was the one to go to, but shifted with Under Armour (UAA-N) coming in, and now Adidas (ADS-GR) is really taking a lot of market share. Her concern is more around the leisure trend that is so dominant in North America, and when does that style change and move on to something else. Internationally they are doing well, but domestically they are doing a number of things where they are trying to right the ship and get back to the growth they would like. She is not keen on the apparel space because of the strong trends in recent years.

They had a bit of a pop when they announced they would sell direct through AMZN-Q. She wants to see more growth in emerging markets before getting into it. Don’t buy right now.

(A Top Pick Nov 29/16. Up 10%.) Sold this a while ago. He was starting to get very uncomfortable with the retail environment. Their shoes continue to do very, very well.

A company he admires, but bad news keeps coming out. They were very reliant on retail channels which no longer have the footfall they used to. They are under-indexed to online, which is where more and more demand for soft goods is going. Their quarters for many years have shown inventory issues. Feels they have also shown some erosion in price recently. He is just waiting for an appropriate entry point.

(A Past Top Pick Sep 14/16, Down 1%) He thought AMZN-Q was going to come in and that NKE-T would take better advantage of it, dealing more through AMZN-Q than they are, using them as a distributor. It is slow in coping but the stock seems to be fine. There is nothing wrong with the company. Last year was a tough year for them but he thinks it is okay and is still hanging on.

(A Top Pick Oct 27/16. Up 4%.) Sold this a while ago. Felt there was a lot more competition on the clothing side, and they were losing share there.

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 9.08%.) Sold his holdings a while ago. When they cut the border taxes, etc., this company was going to be the most affected by that. A great brand name, and will continue to do well.

Just reported and had some pretty decent numbers. He used to hold this, but sold it based on concerns over the very intensified competition happening in North America. Their growth is really dependent on keeping their market share in the footwear and apparel business. They need to rebuild their strength in the basketball area as well. He is concerned with their loss of distribution with some of the US sports stores that have closed down over the last couple of years.

This really scores well for him on value. The balance sheet is in good shape. 33% ROE. Not incredibly cheap at 22X, but a consistent steady earner. They are a leader in their space. Momentum has been the knock against them. It is still in the middle of the pack. 1.4% dividend yield.

(Market Call Minute.) He would pass on this. It is being challenged by Under Armour (UA-N) and Adidas (ADS-GR). It trades at a fairly healthy multiple.

He really likes this company. Sold his holdings when he thought they had too much inventory. The most recent concerns are that the assortment of footwear may not be the right assortment, which he imagines they will fix in time. They had too many shoes at the high end of their price range, and not enough in the mid-range. Also, there is a lot of concern about their retail channel. Still sells a fair amount through wholesalers to department stores, and department store footfall has turned negative. There is a restructuring plan in place. This still has room to fall if it goes to the bottom end of its long-term valuation range. Keeps this on his watch list.

(A Top Pick April 6/16. Down 12%.) This has a lot of competition, and it has also been a very challenging retail environment. Shares are trading at around 21X forward earnings with a 10%-12% growth rate. A bit expensive at this time. He sold his holdings last November.

The sports apparel business is saturated. These guys are having difficult times. There is over capacity and competition on pricing. It is dead money. They will fix it and it will come down.