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TSE:PEY

Peyto Exploration & Develop. (PEY.TO)

24.44
-0.00 (0.00%)
as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
120 watching
0
COMMENT
Company is highly exposed to natural gas. Concerned about over supply of natural gas in North America. Believes much higher potential in oil stocks. Avoiding natural gas stocks for now.
DON'T BUY
Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.
RISKY

He thinks natural gas will be the energy of the future. He is not an energy expert. He has gone with Peyto. Consider taking small positions when there are big market down days. But they must be good companies that will survive. 7 out of 10 of these companies may go under. Think of them as call options.

DON'T BUY
They are the poster child for the woes of the AECo market. They have debt to cash flow of 4 times. They are maintaining production. We are over 70% through winter and we have seen demand down 14% in North America this season. The outlook is bleak. Natural gas stocks are a play on weather and he does not see any prospects in this space at this time. He is looking towards Canadian oil plays instead.
COMMENT
The US / China truce as of last week eliminated the strong worries people had on the global economy. There has been a large unwind of value stocks for growth stocks. The best value in the world is Canadian energy stocks. PEY-T is a levered natural gas. He took the easy profits off it. If you are really bullish on it, then this is a good way to play it.
DON'T BUY

They produce 96% natural gas, trying to diversify. They're the lowest-cost operator in North America, but drilling is uneconimical now. LNG is a long way off. Avoid this.

DON'T BUY
They have a challenged balance sheet.
DON'T BUY
Their earnings missed in the most recent quarter. Their balance sheet within the industry is okay but is there any catalyst to see them go up in price significantly. There are other places he would invest such as ECA-T or ARX-T.
DON'T BUY
Natural gas prices in western Canada are struggling, but management is solid. The price can't go much lower and ultimately PEY will recover, but who knows when? They're in a difficult spot now. They pay a decent yield above 3%.
COMMENT
Peyto vs Torc. He is not fond of Peyto -- production is flat and the balance sheet is not great. They also focus on natural gas -- an area he sees little opportunity in that commodity. Torc is a well-run oil producer, with a solid management team. He clearly would prefer Torc.
DON'T BUY
Book value is $9.99. Volumes came down because they shut in some dry gas. The stock has been decimated. He prefers other names to this one.
WATCH

Natural gas is a dirty word today. As a contrarian, he likes the yield but wonders if it is sustainable. They have a good management team. At some point there will be demand for Canadian natural gas – west coast LNG could be a catalyst. He thinks there are other energy names, but he continues to watch it. Yield 6.8%.

COMMENT

Gas is down, and the stock has slid from $30 to $10. They have a good long-term track record, so investigate why there was such a slide (it wasn't just the gas price). Now could be an entry point.

BUY

Definitely would consider it. $25 target. Cheap valuation. If you own it, average down. Sustainable 6.6% yield. Now is a great entry point.

WAIT

This company is well managed. It is a low cost operator. Its price has come down enormously. Its dividend has been cut, but it offers a 72 cent dividend on a price (on day of interview) of $10.78. The company’s problem is its debt load, which has been rising. It is now $1.285 billion, up from $1.07, against $1.72 billion in equity. It is not good to have rising debt in a declining commodity market. Book value is $10.44. If he is right that oil prices will come down, the stock could go down significantly further, past $8 or beyond. At $8, the yield would be fabulous. He doesn’t cover the name because of the balance sheet issues.

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