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Mike PhilbrickSPDR S&P 500 ETFSPYDON'T BUYJul 30, 2018

The S&P 500. US Equities. They tend to do well when we have benign inflation, good global growth and abundant liquidity. But now we have some liquidity coming out. People are selling actively managed stocks to buy the S&P 500 themselves. This means that when they want to get out, all these investors will be selling the same stocks. ETFs are more popular than in 2007/8.

Mike Philbrick

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Stock price when the opinion was issued

$747.01

As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY

SPY vs. QQQ

SPY is more diversified than QQQ, which is mainly technology, biotech, and some consumer names. SPY is 26% technology, 8% communications. Tech sector has gotten ahead of itself again, and the valuations are not that attractive.

BUY

It's been beaten down, but healthcare will do well.

COMMENT

put buying SPY put buys: 30,000 of the July 377 puts, and 100,000 of the June 345 puts, and 18,000 of the July 22 expiring 385 puts. This action may not be over just yet, because there's still a lot of buying.

DON'T BUY

She is handpicking stocks in this bear market. Choose individual stocks. It's hard work--read the reports and listen to the calls, but it pays off. Don't buy the SPY, but would own the stocks in that ETF.

DON'T BUY

Not his favourite place to be. The Canadian market is better on a seasonal basis. Be careful of timing and wait for corrections.

BUY

Today's session (a knee jerk bounce after Biden announced oil sanctions against Russia) signalled to her that if we get even a whiff of good news, that we'll see a giant rally. We're hungry for any kind of good news (out of Russia/Ukraine). She bought some SPY calls at the day's end.... If peace were announced tomorrow, she could see crude oil sliding by at least $25/barrel.

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TOP PICK

Largest ETF in the world tracking the S&P 500 index. Social media mentions are up 278% for the past 24h suggesting an optimistic popular outlook for the S&P 500 in 2022.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes the US, has a lot of quality. At this stage, slightly overbought at 65 RSI. Wait for some more volatility. Long-term, it's a great way to access the 500 largest cap names in the US.

COMMENT

Having a tilt towards tech has worked well. While we get into low inflation, these will do well. There are signs that underlying the surface of index returns, the market may not be as healthy as it might appear. A narrow group of stocks are driving the returns.

COMMENT

Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.

BUY

Defensive ETF? Not a bad idea to dip into the broader index at this point after the selloff. SPY is the most well-known name. Now right below the 200-day moving average.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 17/18, Up 43%) He sold SPY June $250 put. At the time, it was trading around 245. He hedged his bets on the downside by buying a June 230 put. This means if the S&P500 collapsed below 230, it would be put to somebody else. He took in $6/share.

COMMENT

Did 3 puts on May 10 at 284 and paid $9.61 on May 13. It was at 280 or a loss of $4/share, but the put went up to $11.13. Why did the put not protect the SPY position? Are the puts a good way to protect long positions? Problem is, options have a delta--they don't move dollar-for-dollar with the underlying security . The delta would be around $50 for him, so the option likely moved 50 cents up every dollar that the SPY moved down. So that's not 100% protection. He'd need 6 puts instead of 3.

COMMENT

He wants to see an event such as a report to buy into the market at a good time. He's not doing any puts, but would wait for news and then buy in.

COMMENT

Anymore upside? A fantastic ETF. Nobody knows when the top is, but we've enjoyed a great rebound since December 2018.

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Mike PhilbrickSPDR S&P 500 ETFSPYDON'T BUYJul 30, 2018

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