Telus Corp (T.TO)

This stock ranks well in the 700 stocks in his dividend-stock database, but its near-term cash flow is negative, in comparison to 3-year and 5-year cash flow growth which have been OK. In contrast, Rogers ranks as an OK-to-buy stock in his system.

Stock is up 2.5% YTD. His colleague argues that given their capex peak in mid-2017 followed by absorbing the MTS (Manitoba Telecom) subscriber base, their their free cash flow should be strong in the future. Telus is the strongest of the Canadian telcos with great numbers. It looks good going forward. Their cash flow will help them weather rising interest rates.

The whole sector has been under pressure. Nothing wrong with Telus per se as it rolls out high-speed products. You can own this for the long-term. He sees no regulatory risk. The only risk is if Freedom Mobile gets aggressive and how likely is that?

Telecoms are pretty vulnerable here. Pricey relative to its group. They surprised to the upside on guidance on Q4. They have a network advantage. He is modeling 17% earnings growth, 7% dividend growth and a payout ratio that support that dividend. A name that had some capex issues in the last couple of years, but they had seen the inflection here.

Held up better than Rogers recently. Good dividend. Terrific Dividend growth. Run by one genius operators. One of the best CEOs in Canada. He loves the telcos. (Analysts’ price target is $51)

He is looking at a possible exit because cash flow is slowing. It has not fallen like other utilities. He does not see a great recovery in revenues. There is nothing wrong with the company.

Likely to post solid future growth longer-term. Currently, we have spiking bond yields, which impacts telco valuations. This one is at a level that is not cheap, trading at 17.5X 2018. However on Q3 they guided to lower CapX for the 1st time since 2010. That's a suggestion they have built most of their footprint. Also, they beat on new subscribers both wireless and wireline. He models them growing EPS at 15% for 2017-2019. With this pullback, because of the climb in bond yields, you can write a Put and oblige yourself to own it at $45, and get a nice little premium.

Telus (T-T) or Bell Canada (BCE-T)? He owns both. They are very similar, especially in the Canadian marketplace given how small the market is. You can own both. It's the idea of having some diversification in the portfolio. Both pay a great dividend and have a history of raising the dividend. The dividend on this is about 4.2%. If yield is important, and you are retired, you are likely to lean more towards BCE because of the greater yield. He likes the focus this has on the wireless side.

Bell Canada (BCE-T) or Telus (T-T)? He owns all 3 Canadian telcos, because people are addicted to their cell phones, which is why he loves cell phone companies. There has been a little rotation out of interest sensitive companies, but he sees many, many years of earnings growth. Prefers Rogers (RCI.B-T) out of the 3, as he thinks they have better assets and faster growth.

Has a great yield of 4.3% and trades at about 17X earnings. With Alberta having such difficulty with oil, the stock kind of collapsed. Prior to that it was doing incredibly well. They also had very good growth on their mobile side. They are doing a massive CapX expenditure like BCE in order to do fibre to the home. BCE was doing it in massively dense populations so it wasn't as costly. Telus is working in Alberta, and the costs are for more expensive. Looking at their balance sheet, their CapX is going up substantially, but the free cash flow has fallen a lot. They have to get through this, where the CapX starts to go down again and free cash flow grows. He would stay with this.

Historically, stocks like this do very well in the summer on a seasonal basis. We are now outside of the seasonality, but technically, the long-term trend has done very well. It recently broke into all-time highs.

Not cheap, trading at around 18X 2018. Has a pretty high payout ratio around 86%, but sees that coming down. On Q3 their CAP X guidance was lower for the 1st time since 2010. They've laid most of their fibre and have done their footprint, so costs will be coming down. At the same time, there is a lot of strength in wireless and wireline. He models 15% per share growth 2016-2018. In 2020 this trades at a 15X reasonable multiple. He would buy at $46.

Having doubled my money, do I buy more or diversify into something else? A theme that has worked in this market for a long time is dividend growth. This company has been a poster child for years and years. He is not a huge fan of the telcos, because it falls into the camp of the bond proxy like sectors. Within the sector, this has a very high exposure to wireless, and technically the stock looks very, very good. It has just broken old of a 2-year base, and consolidated the breakout, so next year looks quite good.

This has been extremely well-managed. Relative to Bell (BCE-T) it has made great strides positioning itself, not only within the wireless market, but also profitability wise. Has a good dividend history. With a long-term view, this is a good stock to own.

(A Top Pick July 18/16. Up 19%.) Still likes this and is still buying for new clients. A great way to get exposure to pretty much a pure cell phone data wireless business.