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Twin Butte Energy (TBE.TO)

COMMENT

Generally he would consider this as a Buy but in the current situation he would classify it as a Hold or a Sell. It trades along with heavy oil, which is moving down and differentials are moving wider.

COMMENT

Should be regarded as a low growth, stable dividend player. If oil falls significantly more, he would be mildly cautious. Have been hedging on both their oil exposure and the differential exposure. Very confident management.

TOP PICK

This is his #1 name in terms of low payout ratio. This includes the dividend and capital spending to maintain and even grow a little bit. Spending less than their cash flow when you add the dividend and capital program together. Feels it can offer some growth in terms of its 8.24% dividend through its acquisition strategy.

BUY

(Market Call Minute) Heavy oil play.

TOP PICK

Above 8% dividend. Some of their wells froze in Q4 last year. Frozen wells are something that is cured by time. It just over reacted.

BUY

Likes it. They managed to go to a dividend paying model by buying assets in the Lloyd minster area. A bit a hiccup recently because some wells in a certain area were underperforming. They put in a cushion that allows them to meet some of the hiccups. 9% dividend is safe.

BUY

A good name and the future looks pretty good. Has traded off a little bit because of the oil differential.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Feels dividend is sustainable but concern that they have some issues at their Primate properties. This, coupled with wider differentials, they decided to curtail capital spending and take down production forecasts for 2013. Doesn’t think it is a broken story. 9.6% dividend yield. Wouldn’t add to any position ahead of the 1st quarter because the company had challenges with production levels. Use this as an opportunity to add to weakness.

PARTIAL BUY

Sold his holdings at around $3 and just bought it back recently. Had some production issues with a major well that set them back a little bit. Doesn’t think it changes their strategy long-term. Good assets and very disciplined management team. Wouldn’t back the truck up yet but wait to see some progress on the issue.

HOLD

Pays a good dividend and he thinks it has room to grow its production. The problem is that they are facing a lot of headwinds because of the price of oil.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Company stumbled which is uncharacteristic of this management team. 2 weeks ago they announced they were having reservoir issues in their Primate area. Trading at about 5.5X. Feels dividend is still quite safe. Payout ratio is just under 100%. Balance sheet is not bad at 1.4X debt to cash flow. At a lower price, he will be adding to his holdings.`

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Yield play of about 7%. Valuation is great. Spending within their means. Payout ratio within 100.

BUY

Good balance sheet. Collapsing Canadian spreads. Good growth. Good valuation.

WAIT

On his radar list. Heavy oil differentials are very wide and this is a heavy oil producer. Management has done a great job of aggravating acreage. As Q4 numbers are reported by some of the companies, investors are going to realize just how terrible the heavy oil business is.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Underlying assets are very predictable and returns are excellent. Focused on Westminster heavy oil, which offers some of the best play economics across the entire basin. Has been masterful at exploiting their heavy oil reserves. Believes this company will become an aggregator of other smaller businesses.

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