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Stockchase Opinions

Eric NuttallTrican Well Service Ltd.TCW.TODON'T BUYAug 25, 2015

Trican (TCW-T) or Calfrac (CFW-T)? This one is days away from tripping covenants, so they have to renegotiate with their debt holders. Have negative EBITDA so their debt to cash flow is infinite right now. A really, really, really tough situation to be in. If they can renegotiate, you could see the stock increase materially, but if not there may be little equity value in the company. His preference would be Canyon Services (FRC-T).

$1.16

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$6.99

As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.

oilgas field services
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 26/23, Up 48%)

Outlook quite strong in terms of well servicing, you can go back in and re-frack to improve productivity. Nice, strong upward bias to fracking services and intensity of services. Nice yield.

BUY

Cheap at 8x earnings, 3.3% dividend yield. Clean balance sheet. Has done well in the last year. Even if activity remains flat, probably going higher because of the price of oil.

RISKY

Good for long term investors at 5-10 years.
Energy services a volatile sector.
Is good for risk adverse investors.
Cash balance very strong. 
Demand for drilling is high given strength in energy prices.

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

TCW has an impressive shareholder yield, with a dividend yield of 1.7%, a buyback yield of 10.8%, and a debt paydown yield of 3.4%. The company is a $971M company with a forward earnings multiple of 8.1X, a low debt profile, growing margins, and great free cash flows, but it does operate in a cyclical industry. Although the company's balance sheet has shrunk since 2018, its share count has also diminished significantly since that timeframe. If an investor has an optimistic outlook on the price of oil and the energy market, we would feel comfortable with the solid execution and fundamentals of this company. 
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COMMENT

It provides energy services in Alberta as well as some in the U.S. He doesn't own energy services or exploration companies. Sticks to pipelines.This type of company does well when the sector does well.

TOP PICK

His theme today is leverage, nice yield, and ability to grow cash. No debt. Trades at 2.5x EBITDA multiple, down from its historic 5x. Services are picking up. Advantaged on the gas side, purest publicly listed frack play in Canada. First Nations issues resolved. LNG Canada could mean a 10% rig pickup. Ultra-clean balance sheet. Nice yield of 1.25%.

(Analysts’ price target is $5.53)
HOLD
Depreciation is real. The more you pump, the faster the equipment wears down. Well service activity is much higher than 2-3 years ago. Rig counts are moving up, pricing is higher, and TCW will benefit. Sweet spot in the cycle right now, but he has concerns about length of cycle. Any near-term softening in nat gas price could negatively impact next year's activity.
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes service side of the business in energy. Producers not drilling as much as in prior energy booms. Expecting increased drilling/service demand for the long term.

COMMENT
Would purchase TCW than PD. Owns neither. The collapse on oil price will impair spending further than maintenance capital. There is always a bad actor that ruins the pricing power. Would prefer the producers.
COMMENT
TCW vs. CFW Issue for CFW has been the balance sheet. Lots of debt. Concerns about solvency. Upswing in the sector is helping them. Whereas TCW has a clean balance sheet with rising fundamentals that's all going to equity holders. TCW is a safer blue chip.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't see much upside here, though there will be pricing power finally for the pressure-pumpers now that foreign players have left Canada. He begs companies like this not to invest excess money to drill a lot, just keep drilling flat. And use excess cash to buy back shares. The space is less competitive than before. But there are lower returns with service companies than before. Also, their biggest shareholder has been selling shares.
DON'T BUY
He does not own any service names. Oil company spending will go to dividend increases, share buybacks or deleveraging. Production growth related spending is a couple years away. Bullish elements for gas has been offset by decrease in production. It is too expensive right now for him to buy.
BUY
He prefers services companies to producers. Existing wells decline quickly. Services companies have gear that you don’t have to worry about it declining. Insiders have been buying more recently. This one could be the last one standing.
TOP PICK
Their debt is only 8% of equity. They use cash flow to buy back their stock. They are the dominant fracker in Canada. He expects Q2 and Q3 to be tough quarters, but by Q4 there will be a lot of natural gas drilling. His price target is $1.50. If you can buy it under $0.60 it makes sense. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $0.82)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 50%) He figured that oil was near the bottom of the cycle when he bought this last year, but the virus and oil crisis have pushed energy lower. TCW's managers have been buying shares, which encourages him. Also, their balance sheet is strong, especially debt-equity, compared to its peers. This is positioned to bounce back.