(A Top Pick Dec 24/21, Down 5%) He likes the insurance companies right now, as they have pricing power. Banks in US and Canada will struggle in the next year as interest rates rise. Loan loss provisions are already going up, job layoffs. Yield over 4%, and grows over 10% a year.
He still owns. Banking industry is in very good shape in this country. Great dividend yield, trading at reasonable book value. Trouble is that net interest income is being offset by investment banking and such that are doing poorly. Longer term, will do well. Lots of capital to increase dividends or buy back shares. He's comfortable owning at these levels.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate TD as a TOP PICK. During economic uncertainty Canadian chartered banks are a safe haven. Recently reported earnings again beat expectations. Revenue of $15.5 billion in the quarter was up 42%, allowing cash reserves to grow substantially while debt is retired and shares to be bought back. The dividend was just raised 7%. We recommend trailing up the stop loss (from $72.50) to $79.50, looking to achieve $100 -- over 14% upside. Yield 4.3% (Analysts’ price target is $100.21)
Rising interest rates should be good for banks but they are also dealing with more defaults. There is some recent support but if it breaks below $80, sell.
Good entry point is right now. On cusp of closing a transformational acquisition of First Horizons. Increases market share. Now the 6th largest bank in the US. US banking is very net-interest-margin sensitive, interest rates are rising, making lots of money. Flipside is US banking is more credit-risky, but it's adequately provisioned. Capital markets round out return. Low double-digit returns for decades, likely to continue.
This is a good one to hold and is one of the cheaper banks. It has good growth in the U.S. There is margin expansion with rising interest rates and it has raised its dividend.
The banks are reporting in early December, and the clear winner is TD. BMO, BNS and CIBC were mixed or missed while Royal modestly grew earnings by 2% year-over-year. All the banks have had a challenging year, particularly Canadian ones which face a real estate had looked poised for a serious downturn until October numbers signalled a bounce in housing price and demand. Looking ahead, though, all the banks are cushioning their balance sheets to absorb any bad mortgages as interest rates climb and a recession (perhaps mild) looms.
TD vs. CM for the long term? TD. CM has a lower valuation, but TD has everything going for it. CM is struggling, and he's wary of that. Go with the better quality ones now. His firm looks at valuation, not fundamentals. When it's time to buy value, he'd look at CM.
TD vs. MFC vs. SLF All financials got beaten up. Issue with banks is potential loan losses, and if it's a deep recession, loan losses can get bigger. A lot of financials can be a black box, and you don't see the damage until it's too late. Impressed by what MFC has done over time, nice dividend yield. All financials are starting to look interesting. Banks look attractive valuation-wise, but he'd wait.
The banks are an indicator of markets. Capital markets activity (a lot less M&A) has impacted banks. However, net interest income is positive. On balance, banks have a decent profit profile. They hold a lot of capital to pull many levers like buy back shares. He is quite positive all banks. His favourites are BNS and TD, followed by Royal. CIBC has a weaker growth profile.
Short-term risks to banks. Integration risks with acquisitions. Dividend safe, growing. Don't sell just because stock's sold off. Valuation has checked back, with possibly more to go. Be patient deploying capital. If you own it, hold, and perhaps diversify elsewhere. See his Top Picks.
TD has expanded its NIM in the US, so last quarter they benefited the most out of all the banks. Best in class. He's lightened up on financials. Valuations are compelling, but margin and loan growth will be stagnant. Banks don't do well in recessions. No tailwinds right now.
(A Top Pick Sep 14/21, Up 11%) The valuation is below historic averages. They will acquire First Horizon bank in the U.S. southeast which will expand TD's presence there. As interest rates rise along with loan growth, TD's net interest margin will expand. They also bought Cowen to expand in capital markets. They still have a strong balance sheet. The dividend, the smallest among the big 5 banks, will continue to increase.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate TD as a TOP PICK. During economic uncertainty Canadian chartered banks are a safe haven. TD recently reported its 9th consecutive quarter of beating earning expectations. Retail margins are increasing and wealth management is growing market share. The dividend is good, growing by over 7% annually for the past 10 years. Rising interest rates are good for their bottom line. We recommend placing a stop loss at $72.50, looking to achieve $100 -- over 16% upside. Yield 4.0% (Analysts’ price target is $99.25)
Toronto Dominion (TD.TO) Frequently Asked Questions
What is Toronto Dominion stock symbol?
Toronto Dominion is a Canadian stock, trading under the symbol TD.TO (previously TD-T on Stockchase) on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TD-CT). It is usually referred to as TSX:TD or TD.TO