Greg NewmanTFI International IncTFII.TOWEAK BUYOct 04, 2023

Are excellent buyers of companies and synergizing them, and just bought one recently. The only question is their valuation. There's some downside here, and the stock will ebb and flow with the economy. Overall, a very good stock.

Like the CSU of trucking, with 90 acquisitions over 10 years. Bad year for trucking last year. Beautiful balance sheet, lots of free cashflow. Once recent acquisition gets rolled in, a home run. Contemplating splitting into two, as less-than-truckload and courier get higher valuations. Needs to be recovery in freight revenue for stock to go higher, but that will happen. Yield of 1.2%.

Cut loose earlier this year, amidst a difficult growth environment. Almost-impossible comparison to last year's profits from supply-chain shortages. 2023 US manufacturing recession led to a freight recession. Valuation is sub-16x earnings, in line with 10-year average. Quality compounder, consolidator in the industry. Compounded total shareholder return of 23% over the last decade. Comfortable buying here. Expects good 2024 earnings.

Does not invest in company currently. Founder led and owned. Returns on invested capital are high. Little bit of debt which is a concern. Trucking is not asset light (prefers asset light business models). Would rate business 7/10 in terms of overall quality. 

Are great operators; trucking is all about logistics and operations. Also, they are good at buying companies (in a fragmented industry). E-commerce remains strong, and packages need to be delivered by somebody.

Transports under performing. However, might be a good time to buy. Might be a good time to buy given chart direction. 200 day average suggesting a low. 

Reported a slight earnings miss last week, so has been under pressure. Growth by acquisition in recent years has grown them. He prefers to look elsewhere in transports, like CargoJet with its cheaper valuation and similar growth profile.

Bankruptcy of competitor gives them an opportunity to gain market share. Extremely well managed. Acquisitions have gone well. Still room to move forward, but depends on strength of economic activity. 

Loves it. If you're made a nice profit, why not sell a third of it? Sell if a stock becomes larger than 6% in your portfolio.

Why the strength, when it's an economically sensitive business? One competitor declared bankruptcy, which will throw business their way. M&A is still a driver. He boosted price target to $180, but still a sector perform. 16x 2023 earnings, but growing at 18%, so PEG is still attractive. 

In registered accounts, he's taking some off the table, but in non-registered accounts he's letting it run. Likes it long term.

The question was on his preference between Toromont or TFI International. Although Toromnt is good he prefers TFI which has been a great stock and huge performer. It has great management which has deployed capital very well and made smart acquisitions. There is more upside.

One of the few large-caps he owns. Last year, they bought UPS freight, which hadn't been making money. TFI has a long track record of compounding capital at a high rate. Though trucking demand may be weak in coming quarters. But long term you will make 15-20% annually.

Likes all transportation, especially this one.

Trucking company with strong assets.
Buybacks and tuck-ins still an option.
Higher interest rates helping business.
Wait to buy more shares when price falls.