Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.TO)

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14.03

+0.19 (1.37%)

as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

472 watching

PARTIAL BUY

Average down? He is not close to following this one. Management has said the dividend is safe. Hopefully it is not cut. He does not own it. You could pick away at this, even just looking for a bounce. Yield 14%

WATCH

People who are selling these stocks are not doing it for investment reasons. It's to sell fossil fuel stocks in general. The yield is close to 14.5% and they are saying they will not cut the dividend. He would wait for a bottom before entering.

DON'T BUY

He had owned this back in 2018. Their largest exposure was in Europe and was backed by Brent oil prices. When differentials were negative in Canada they benefited. Energy in Canada is so cheap relative to European assets, so he thinks the opportunity lies back home in Alberta. So he does not own this. There is also a risk of the high dividend being cut. Yield 13%

COMMENT

The market likes it around $20, but it's around $18, so you got to have the stomach for this one.

COMMENT

Dividend safe? He owns this and thinks the dividend is secure. If WTI rises to $70 later this year, then they can reduce debt to improve the balance sheet and perhaps raise the dividend if WTI moves about $80. They are generating surplus cash flow outside of North America. They are 53% liquids and they expect to increase production in the future. Yield 13%

HOLD

He thinks management is good here. It is a question of the dividend. The street does not think it is sustainable. Management knows what they are doing but debt is a little high. Management plans on continuing to pay the dividend.

TOP PICK

His entry point is right here. Sells to Europe. Dividend is sustainable, and has never been cut. Sales are hedged, and they get the higher Brent price. Target is $35. Yield is 13.08%. (Analysts’ price target is $25.07)

COMMENT

Yields 13%. The yield rises because the price goes down, and that is not positive. Look at their fundamentals, especially cash flow and payout ratio. Managers stand by this yield which he feels is awfully high.

COMMENT

VET says its capex and dividend are fully funded down to $55 WTI. VET is cheap, and the balance sheet is okay. Pay ratio is around 101%. Problem is there will be -4% negative cash flow per share growth. The only hope is that oil prices will least stabilize or rise--and he doesn't know. VET is not bad, otherwise look at WCP or Peyto as a dividend oil stock.

BUY

What stands out the most is it yields just under 13%. Stock is priced as though it's going to cut the dividend, but he doesn't think it will. Moderate risk of a cut. Good risk/reward. Likes geographic balance of production. Half is from Canada, rest is elsewhere. Leverage ratio is 1.9x, which is moderate. Payout ratio is 49%, which is manageable. Chart's bottomed. Good entry point for pretty high quality producer with leverage to oil.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 15/19, Down 25%) He thinks it is extremely well managed. He believes the dividend will be maintained unless commodity prices fall dramatically. Of all the energy companies in Canada it is likely the most internationally diversified. He thinks the price is already taking into account a dividend cut. He will continue to hold it.

BUY

14% dividend. He owns it nervously. Cutting the dividend in half would still make it a good dividend. The reinvestment plan is being eliminated. It is a well run company. It could be a good performer.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Dividend safe? When the yield gets this high, the market is telling the company the dividend should be cut. In this case, he thinks it should to shore up the balance sheet. Their exposure to Europe makes it advantaged. He would be a buyer when they cut the dividend. Yield 13%

WEAK BUY

He would have to look closer at the high dividend and where it's coming from. If it falls below $19, he would get out since that is the bottom. It has good volume and gets picked up when it falls, like in November. You could buy it right now. If it were to go up, it could go to $25 in the short term. It was trading at $50 a year ago. He would consider this for its strong base.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 28/18, Down 27%) Sold it in June and bought Arc. Liked it because they were exposed to European natural gas prices, and are they're good at growing their dividend. But their multiple got too high. VET remains a good company. The dividend is near 14%, but he thinks the stock will rise if they reduce the dividend.

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Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.TO)