Michael BowmanSPDR HOMEBUILDERS ETFXHBCOMMENTDec 18, 2013

Is shorting this. Next week, it may pop if the Fed does nothing.

He's short the homebuilding sector. Home prices are high given rates. Loan applications are nosediving and the macro is exacerbating seasonlity. Doesn't see upside. These stocks are really interest-rate proxies.

Careful, because their largest holdings include Restoration Hardware and Sonoma, so you don't get to the homebuilders like DR Horton until further down the list. He himself prefers the homebuilder, so he prefers ITB. He's very bullish US housing. That said, XHB is still good.

(Top Pick May 5/16, Up 5.63%) The decline took place and he is waiting for confirmation. This could be a good short now. They tend to well from October into February. He is not doing at this time.

How to Play the Housing Market in the US. US housing has already come back. He is not sure there is a whole lot more upside. XH­B-N has the home builders and this is the best way to play that market. It also has other companies that benefit from new home sales. It does not have the lumber companies, however.

SHORT. He is short the home builders from April 27 to Mid June.

(A Top Pick May 5/15. Down 6.83%.) (Short.) Covered his Short before the end of the seasonal period. He had a marginal loss with this trade. US housing starts tend to be very strong from October 28 to Feb 3, and tends to be relatively flat the rest of the year. He was trying to take advantage of that negative time. We have now seen housing starts being very strong, which has helped drive this particular security up. That is a positive signal that the next seasonal trade coming up in October has more of a tendency to work.

US home construction ETF? This is homebuilders, but is also about 5% on appliances, about 20% home renovations, etc. A good one to be in and he really likes what is happening in the US homebuilding market.

An ETF that takes advantage of US housing starts and/or home renovations? One would be iShares DJ Home Construction (ITB-N), or this one as a pure play on homebuilders. Not a bad place to be and you could do very well in the next 2-3 years.

US home construction ETF? This is the name that he would like. It includes some of the retailers as well. If you want more of a pure play, you could look at the iShares US Home Construction (ITB-N) which would be the actual home constructors.

Home construction ETF’s? He likes this as an idea. This has building materials companies along with some of the homebuilders. You could look at this or iShares US Home Construction (ITB-N).

(Short) Homebuilders tends to really fall off in March or April and drop down into the summertime. From 1990 to 2014 from April 27 into June 19 this sector tends to be positive only 29% of the time and produces an average of 4% loss. It is underperforming the S&P 500 at this time, and there is still some legs on this trade.

This has mostly the builders along with some of the materials companies. He thinks the housing recovery is a long-term theme, and we are probably in the 5^th inning of that and that it will continue.