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TSE:ZEB
Canadian Banks have been badly beaten up because a) everybody expects the house prices to collapse, b) oil prices are going to have an impact at some point and c) US hedge funds are Short Selling banks. Recently there have been some positive performances for the banks. We are now in the seasonal period for banks and they are showing outperformance signs. He is expecting that to continue on.
A basket of US or Cdn bank stocks for a TFSA account for an 88-year-old? You could buy BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF (ZEB-T). This is the easiest way to get a basket of stocks. Yield on the Canadian banks is better than 4%.
Seasonality for bank stocks is from the end of August right through until November. Every year the CEOs report their 4th quarter results around the 4th week of November. They love to give you good news at that period of time. Technically it is showing positive signs. It is starting to outperform the market, trading above its 20 day moving average and starting to show signs of bottoming.
With interest rates supposedly rising in the next 6-8 months, would you choose the BMO Equal Weight Cdn Bank (ZEB-T) or the BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks (ZWB-T)? Generally what you want to know about what works best for a Covered Call strategy, is that when you feel that a particular sector is going to be relatively flat, or maybe slightly negative, that is when you are going to get the dividend on top of the covered call premiums. If you think banks are going to take off and do extremely well, you might as well own the Equal Weight basket.
Banks have 2 periods of seasonal strength. One is from January until the middle of April. The other is from August to October. Technicals on this ETF are very positive. The trend is upwards. The units are trading above their 20 day moving average. Its strength, relative to the S&P 500 and TSE Composite, is currently positive. The key is to stick with the sector until the end of its period of seasonal strength, which turns out to be this week. When you start to see technical deterioration that will be the time to take some profits.
Equally weight bank index in Canada. Looking forward, he suspects bank earnings are going to stabilize. Probably not fall too much, but probably not go up too much from here. When you draw the channels out on the charts for the next year or so, it is probably going to be range bound. You want to have a bit less when it’s near the top and a bit more when it is near the bottom. In a range bound environment, this one is a better holding. BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks (ZWB-T) gives you the same equally weighted banks, but it does a covered call overlay on half the position and gives you about 2% extra a year in dividend returns. Because of this, and a sideways market, this is going to do a little bit better for you.
An equal weight 6 largest Canadian banks ETF. It carries an MER of .62 with a 3.4% dividend expected going forward. Canadian banks have had a bit of a tough time over the last while, given the uncertainty surrounding the Canadian economy, housing market and the energy sector. He still likes banks and thinks they will continue to perform well. The 200 day moving average is still moving upwards and still doing okay. He likes to buy ETF’s when you want to get a diversified basket. This is not a diversified basket. He would prefer to pick 2 or 3 bank stocks.
(Top Pick Sep 4/15, Up 7.22%) The period of seasonal strength ends this week in the banks. Banks are starting to cut back and possible announce write offs.