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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
The bearish latecomers are now telling everyone to buy. This means that a downturn is coming. He sees signs of pulling back, so it's time to take profits on some stocks.
COMMENT
August 15, 2022 - Show unavailable due to BNN technical malfunction
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in prices of goods and services at the producer/manufacturer level, rather than the consumer level. The PPI is traditionally known to be a leading indicator for future inflation, as a softer increase in the PPI puts less pressure on producers to increase their prices to consumers. When producers face input cost inflation, they in turn raise the prices of their goods and services to keep pace with inflation, resulting in higher inflation. The US PPI month-over-month change for July came in below analyst expectations at (0.5%) vs 0.2%, and this represents the first monthly decline since April 2020. This decline in PPI is encouraging to investors in that it signals that the headwinds for higher inflation are easing. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Buying on dips has created rallies. The news this morning indicates that maybe the Fed will pivot a bit earlier than expected since there are significant disappointments on the growth side. What we would like to see in a soft landing is a collapse in inflation with continued growth and the Feds pivoting in their stance. There is a slight moderation of inflation at 8.9% but weaker than expected growth in China. The S&P 500 is seeing sustained inflation and a significant decline in growth. The recent upturn seems like a major bear market rally. We could have higher inflationary volatility ahead.
COMMENT
Question was on selling all of your holding instead of re-balancing. His company builds positions and if holding them for a long time then re-balancing is the way to go and also keeps the portfolio more stable. If you sell it all then you need 100% confidence that it is the right call.
COMMENT
Question was on the potential for an energy crisis in Europe in the fall and winter. Europe has foregone energy security for a decade, so it has difficult choices. Russian oil is hitting the market and going to places like India and Asia with profits paying for the invasion of The Ukraine. Russian natural gas does not provide the same profits so prices will be more volatile.
COMMENT
Two months ago, experts were warning of plunging stocks and oil. This morning's weak opening on falling oil prices makes no sense. Lower oil means lower inflation. Why the sell-off? Because the bears just won't quit.... Wednesday's Fed minutes will be huge. Also watch for housing starts numbers on Tuesday. Housing prices are sky-high after a two-year boom. Will there be an effect on prices? Wednesday also sees retail sales data.
COMMENT
Inflation is starting to peak. Gas prices are declining and commodities stocks are falling as well. The market outlook was dire and poor in June, and exuberant now. This will likely cool off. Home Depot's latest numbers signal that the consumer is "okay."
COMMENT
We're in a full rally, but it's likely between now and mid-September the market will give back 5-7%. No need to panic. It means this whole year there's been a tug-of-war between positives and negatives. In the first half of the year, the focus was negative. Now, it's positive, but September is historically negative. It's a temporary blip, though, in a positive trend overall.
COMMENT
There's a sentiment shift from negative to more positive as the market sees peak inflation. Caveat: August volumes are light and can be volatile. We're not out of the clear yet.
COMMENT
High conviction that we are in multi-year bull market for energy because of lack in supply (end of US shale, OPEC exhaustion etc.) Entire energy sector is trading at a discount to cash flow right now. Going forward, expecting 75% of cash flow to be returned to shareholders in the form of share buybacks & dividends. Question of which energy company has the best catalyst to be re-rated. Most generalist investors are scared of recession & are avoiding energy stocks. Generalist investors making a mistake in belief that recession will lead to drastic reduction in energy consumption.
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Every company that has invested into has become convinced that share buybacks & increased dividends will cure investor apathy. Generalist investors are not required in order to raise share prices (share buybacks will accomplish this). Meaningful return of capital is cure for historic under valuations of energy stocks.
COMMENT
The S&P is approaching its 200-day moving average of 4,326. Only 12 days in, August is the best month for M&A since last November. Growth funds the past week have since the largest inflow since December. Same with equity flows in the past 8 weeks. Taxable fixed-income has reversed 18 weeks of outflows with 2 weeks of inflows.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data both came in below economist expectations for July, and this translated into renewed optimism that inflation has finally peaked. The CPI number, the best-known measure for inflation, came in at 8.5% for July against expectations of 8.7%, and the month-over-month change came in at 0.0%, against estimates for an increase of 0.2%. This was the first time in months that the US inflation reading came in below analyst expectations and it has provided investors with a sigh of relief that good news may be on the horizon. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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