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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
There's been a good 50% retracement from this year's (June) lows. Earnings drive the market and the recent earnings season wasn't too bad. Was good. Question is, when is this slowdown coming? He doesn't see it yet. So, where do investors go? Bonds pay little. Only high-quality stocks offer a decent return.
COMMENT
Tech estimates have gone up this year and are too high. Valuations are at 26x, a huge premium to the mark, and growth outlooks are too aggressive. There will continue to be a divergence between quality and low quality tech.
COMMENT
Believes most important aspect of the markets right now is inflation. Waiting to see if economic slowdown will occur with rising interest rates. Unique environment with highest inflation rates in decades. Half the marker under-performing. Other half is passing on rising costs to consumers. Investors should move towards higher cash levels to take advantage of opportunities. Defensive areas of the market include farmland and dividend yield companies (Telecom, utilities etc.)
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Breaking Down the CPI Inflation Reading. The 0% month-over-month change against the prior month helped to alleviate the previously high inflation reading of 9.1% in June, and this was the result of the gasoline index declining by 7.7% in July, which offset increases from the food and shelter indexes. The food index rose 1.1% for July, which marks the seventh consecutive monthly increase of at least 0.9% or higher. The energy index declined by 4.6% in July after facing large increases in May and June. Shelter is seen to continue rising but at a decelerating pace. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Market focus? We're in a great period of uncertainty. Still seeing after-effects of pandemic and supply chain issues. Now dealing with a war that's creating famine and other problems. We're in for a fairly precarious time in the markets over the next little while. The most important thing is the concentration on inflation. Everyone's worried, and it's already reflected in the housing market. There's no quick fix, despite what authorities say. Good market for value investors. Investors will be looking for near-term earnings and dividends and less on longer term, growth-type earnings. A good time to be repositioning portfolios. Time to upgrade to more financially stable, better managed companies.
COMMENT
Overweight commodities? He has some exposure, primarily in energy. Inflation can be a funny thing with commodities, as it depends on economic demand. We've seen problems in manufacturing with getting supplies. Mining and energy industries have seen inflationary increases in supply costs. You should have some position in them, as there will be demand longer term. But until that time, be careful.
COMMENT
Hotel and leisure segments. There is pent-up demand. Looking 3 years out, leisure companies are a good place to invest. Be careful about which ones you pick, as they're capital intensive and subject to labour costs. A good area to go fishing in.
COMMENT
Canadian banks. Invested in them, especially TD and BNS, but not overweight. Quite constructive on them. Well capitalized going into a time when we could see some economic weakness, and the banks are well positioned for that. As they report, trends that were evident last quarter are likely to continue this quarter. For example, trading revenues are down.
COMMENT
Mortgage defaults a cloud on banks? Support programs during the pandemic eliminated default risk for the banks. Going forward, depending how the economy performs, loan losses are likely to trickle up. How high is tough to tell. Something to watch this quarter, and to listen for management's colour on it looking ahead.
COMMENT
Buying commodity stocks. Avoid deep cyclicals now. You need a long time horizon, 5+ years. Look at them when the shares sell off. You don't want to buy high and hope it goes higher. You have to buy these types of businesses when they're on their backs. Then you have to sell them when they normalize. Momentum strategy doesn't work, it has to be very value-oriented.
COMMENT
Lifecos vs. banks. Lifecos are just a bit more undervalued right now.
COMMENT
Income ideas for a retiree. If you're an income investor, be cautious about jumping in and out. You can't collect the dividend if you're not there. Buy something, and just sit tight and get the dividend. US stocks are best in an RRSP, as there's no withholding tax. If you can't put it in your RRSP, look to Canada for pipelines, BCE, or GWO.
COMMENT
Healthcare names to consider. The industry is attractive, so he'd look at JNJ, CVS, or ABT.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The markets have been climbing back over the past couple of weeks amid a slew of economic events. The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision in late July, hiking interest rates by 75 basis points, and preliminary numbers for the Q2 US GDP came in around (0.9%). The Q2 Canadian GDP preliminary growth numbers came in at 4.6%, demonstrating resilient economic growth in the face of inflation and monetary tightening. Oil continues to trade lower, and top executive comments about subsiding supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures provide investors with a glimmer of hope. The US inflation reading came in at 8.5%, lower than analyst forecasts of 8.7%, and this has fueled a risk-on rally. In this market update, we aim to break down the US inflation reading and what to expect going forward. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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