A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

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Bonds. He is seeing yields rising and breaking through key levels. He is now seeing a MACD Buy signal, which is the 1st in about 3.5 years. US 10 year bonds are currently at about 1.8%. It looks like rates could move up to 3% on US 10 year bonds, which means that if you are holding a US 10 year Bond, you will be looking at a 10% decline in capital. Strategists feel that stocks will outperform bonds by 5%-8% over the next 3-6 months at least.

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Market. Markets had big runs and there is now a little bit of profit taking. He thinks there is further upside in the market but there is too much in the way of upside in the shorter period of time so there is a bit of a correction here. He has cash available for the right stocks at the right price. Thinks sentiment on the US economy is too negative right now. The housing market in the US is leading their economy. He is very under exposed to commodities right now.

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Markets. We are going to work our way higher. Some technical indicies are starting to look better. Global economic data are starting to look better, e.g. jobs. Interest rates still low. Don't sit too hard on any single data point, such as the non-farm payroll data this week with the storm earlier and an election looming. You can't over read any single data point. Neither US candidate is a sure up or down for the markets. He is warming up more to US financial markets than Canadian. US housing market has clearly turned.

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Market. Feels that there is a political will in the US and Europe to keep things rolling and to put a floor under the market. He is looking for slow steady growth. There will be areas in special situations where you can take advantage and make some money. Expects the cycle should come back in 6-12 months.

COMMENT

Canadian banks? These are relatively attractive right now because of where they are trading at compared to the rest of the sector such as utilities, pipelines, etc which are trading at historically high multiples. He prefers and owns Toronto Dominion (TD-T), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), Canadian Imperial. Bank (CM-T) and Canadian Western Bank (CWB-T).

COMMENT

REITs. Still likes this area. Doesn’t have as much upside potential as it would have had a year or so ago. You have to look at these in terms of where 10 year Canada government bonds yields are. Looking at the valuations relative to bond yields, they are not expensive. You are looking at 10% upside potential, which he is very comfortable with. His favourite would be Boardwalk (BEI.UN-T) on the apartment side and Calloway REIT (CWT.UN-T) on the retail side.

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Markets. Thinks that the next 6 months are going to be good. Historically, this is been the best time to be in the market for the next 6 months. There are some risks. There is a slow down and earnings are coming out and are not great. From a 10 year perspective, there is a 90% confidence of being successful.

COMMENT

Natural gas. Seasonally this is a good time to be in natural gas up until December 21. A lot of the southern states, because of tax regulations, want to dump the gas on the market because they are taxed on holdings and inventories.

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Market. The fiscal cliff is a concern for anybody, anywhere and that includes gold. Right now people get scared and sell anything and everything. In the last month or so, people have become more increasingly fearful that Mitt Romney would win and will put in many more measures to reduce the deficit and cut spending. He doesn’t think that whoever gets in power will be the guy who wants to put the country back into recession and he thinks they will again stimulate through quantitative easing, etc. More positive for gold right now. When you look at base metals, the most important thing you should look at is what is going on in China.

BUY

Silver. Very positive on this going forward. Investment of the decade. About 67% of silver consumption is industrial, which is a positive.

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Markets. There had been a really nice rally in the summertime and now you have a pull back. Traditionally, now is when things start to rally into Christmas. Who wins the US election is not as relevant because what really matters is that this issue is out of the way. Thinks the market goes slightly higher from here given that we have had a nice pullback.

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Markets. The US budget office has come out and said if the government implements everything it will cause a 1 to 1-1/2% recession next year. If the US does not make some tough decisions soon, there is a big hurricane going to hit the US bond market as the US gets downgraded again. The US will still remain the reserve currency, though.

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Election. If Romney wins and were to fire Bernanke, it would be quite a shock to the world. Only in that case is there a risk to gold.

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Education Segment. Support Levels. e.g. Look at previous highs and lows, trend-lines, moving averages. Retracements. You can look at a lot of things, but it has to be relevant to the time frame you are trading in. No one's system is a sure thing.

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Markets. Performance of REITs has been great. Mid 20's and higher returns. He has about 8% cash. He never sees any upside – it just happens. He doesn't know how you produce growth from here. Some REITs will have to raise yield to avoid paying taxes.

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