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NASDAQ:AMZN
Amazon (AMZN-Q) or Netflix (NFLX-Q)? Doesn't own either. Prefers Disney (DIS-N) as their pending purchase of 21st-Century Fox is going to remove the shackles and people are going to stop thinking of it as a cord cutting situation with lower subscriber participation, but more in terms of a streaming competitor to these 2. (See Top Picks.)
(A Top Pick June 20/17. Up 18%.) This is on quite a roll. Their business is expanding and will continue to do so massively for the next several years. The issue is profitability. They are throwing all their cash flow back into growing the business. When they slow down, the earnings will come roaring through.
It’s not too late to get into this. As long as we are in a decent market and as long as this continues to beat estimates, it should continue to participate. The leader in a Bull market tends to be a leader to the very end. You are likely to see the weaklings roll over first. Right now, breadth is expanding and weaklings are not rolling over. Stay in the leading stock as they have a tremendous advantage.
What is the potential for a stock split? She doesn't know of any plans, but companies want it to be a reasonable number so there can continue to be a retail base in the stock. The market is giving this company a lot of credit. One analyst was quoted that the rules of valuation do not apply to this company. When you hear that, you wonder how much sentiment is driving the stock. To be fair, they have done a better job of generating cash flow in the last little while. However, they have a history of spending more than they make. Right now, the market is very accommodating to them. She is not participating in this stock.
Everyone is afraid of them. Reinvested capital back into the business is starting to show rewards. He would buy it on dips. You do not need to chase these stocks. After thanksgiving we will have the cyclicality of money flows into the market. Any correction prior to that could be in the 5% range and then we might be set up for something more substantial.
Hold or Sell?If you are holding it, you are buying it. There is no question there is a tremendous amount of growth ahead. It’s very hard to justify valuation. While he has confidence that e-commerce penetration is going to increase very gradually from 9%-10% in the US, when you look at their valuation it is difficult to justify how much earnings are going to have to grow for the valuation to come down to a market multiple. Trades at about 110X next year’s earnings. If you take that market multiple and bring it down to a multiple of about 20, that implies earnings are going to have to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 48% over 10 years. Very few companies have been able to do that.
This is right at the heart of one of the most important secular themes which is on-line retail. It has been a top pick and his view has not changed. The trend is very clearly higher. This can only be one part of a portfolio. There are always risks and you have to know where to exit. They have a very low cost of capital and they have gone and disrupted a lot of industries.
A great long-term play. It is expensive, but once it actually slows its growth, profitability will skyrocket. They are not going to slow their growth, they are going to keep reinvesting in their businesses. With guys like Jeff Bezos, you just want to bet with them and stay with them. Has a target price of $1250.
One of the really interesting things is their economic moat. They own the online consumer, certainly in North America. On companies with wide economic moats, don’t get too cute on what price you should pay. Recent quarterly results were actually abysmal from a net income perspective. If looking to trade in the short term, you might wait for a lower entry point, but for a long-term hold, you could buy it at this level.
Alibaba (BABA-N) or Amazon (AMZN-Q)? You can buy both and he would. Don't use multiples to under valuations, but rather look at invested capital. Estimates 15-20% return on invested capital for Amazon. Alibaba is equal if not slightly better than Amazon. 18% ROIC. Loves both, but would slightly prefer Alibaba.