Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Buy, Sell or Hold

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)

107.17

+0.07 (0.07%)

as of Jun 18, 2026, 11:54:20 pm Market Open.

439 watching

HOLD

Unsure on direction of business due to lack in transparency in China.
At mercy of Chinese government.
Strong business but comes with political risk.
China hard to analyze.

COMMENT

The question was on his preference re buying Ali Baba or Amazon. He prefers Amazon since it is in the U.S. and Ali Baba is in China which has more fraudulent companies. Also Ali Baba has a lot of competition and Amazon has little competition. Profitability is quite spotty with BABA but also can be spotty with Amazon.

DON'T BUY

Not expensive at 14x. Being broken up into 6 different businesses. Issue for him is that when the Chinese government tells you to do something, you do it. This makes running a business difficult. Better off buying a global company with a Chinese presence.

DON'T BUY

He doesn't own Chinese stocks. Yes, he wants to invest in China, a massive market, but there's political interference and risk. He prefers multinationals that derive revenue from China, like Unilever.

HOLD

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks

As China phases out its Covid policy and rapidly returns to normal, Alibaba has climbed, but it’s been a rocky ride. Year-to-date through mid-April, BABA has risen 9%, but soared 36% in January alone as shares passed $120. On March 20, they sank to $81 and in mid-April is bouncing between $95-100. To compare, Amazon has rallied 20% YTD with far less volatility. (Curiously, BABA’s beta is 0.63.) Read China reopens for our full analysis.

DON'T BUY

Buy Chinese ADRs on the NYSE?

No. It's very alluring, well run, very good growth rate, attractive price. Way too much state intervention. You need a very big margin of safety to wade into any big name that's important to the Chinese system.

DON'T BUY

Today, announced it will split into 6 companies

China is focused on industries that create jobs and have ancillary industries. Tech, though, doesn't create as much employment as, say trains and biotech. This move could unlock some value, but the Chinese government will rather support the semis companies which is a better investment there.

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TOP PICK

Alibaba Group's mission is to make it easy to do business anywhere. The company aims to build the future infrastructure of commerce. It envisions that its customers will meet, work and live at Alibaba, and that it will be a good company that lasts for 102 years. Social media mentions are up 211% in the past 24h.

DON'T BUY

He feels that investing outside North America is taking a big risk. The stock may be great but he is not sure about the rules of governance. China needs a reliable legal system.

DON'T BUY

He's sick of stocks that the Chinese government manipulates up or down.

TOP PICK

Household eCommerce name in China (largest eCommerce & cloud services provider). Shares 60% off peak valuation in late 2020. Current share price presenting a buying opportunity. Dark regulatory clouds will pass in China. Believes China won't fall into economic recession (unlike Western countries). China consumer digitally native.

TOP PICK

China will reopen, but also Beijing is becoming friendlier to its tech companies. BABA has many businesses. Has strongly rebounded. $146 is his target. (Analysts’ price target is $141.89)

DON'T BUY

Investing in China He's had little success investing directly in China. He wouldn't do it now because of US sanctions. If you do buy Chinese stocks, do it on the Hong Kong stock exchange, not New York which has delisted Chinese stocks in the past. There's too much political heat on BABA.

DON'T BUY

Data from technical analyst Larry Williams to forecast markets China remains a manipulated market, though it can be manipulated up.

DON'T BUY

There's a change in the world, and there's real potential that China and Asia sit out part of this next cycle in that they'll be underperformers. Doesn't mind adding exposure here. But you'd be better to get exposure to Argentina (ARGT) or Mexico (EWW). People are hoping for a sharp move up, but he sees more of a choppy, sideways trading range for China and Chinese equities.

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