Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)

107.17

+0.07 (0.07%)

as of Jun 18, 2026, 11:54:20 pm Market Open.

439 watching

DON'T BUY

He knows people want him to recommend this. He'd rather find gains somewhere else.

WAIT

China has its foot on the brakes to control inflation. We'll see if this comes off over the next few weeks. Tech industry has been under scrutiny. He'd like to see the technical picture start to improve before putting money to work.

DON'T BUY

They're moving into the cloud business. They were in education and mobile payments (but the government stopped it from going public). This signals that BABA must be careful about what they can and cannot do, given Beijing. This is a good long-term play, but it's difficult to own these Chinese tech stocks.

BUY

Opportunity here for patient investors who can withstand negative headlines and volatility. This month, it's up about 25%, but still a long way to go back to old highs. 27x PE is an all-time low, with 20-25% long-term growth. Revenue this year is 2.5x what it was 3 years ago, yet the stock is back to those levels. Growth of middle class and income in China provides a runway for growth. He's starting new positions and adding to existing ones.

BUY

The worst is over in Chinese tech stocks, hammered by the Chinese government, especially the education stocks. Alibaba has rebounded with investors making strike calls aggressively. Same goes with DIDI. These are big, institutional trades, waiting for Beijing to stop hammering these names. If this has indeed stopped, there could be huge upside. He's been buying this dip.

WEAK BUY

The political lens is not helpful. Structural headwinds, but the underlying e-commerce market is not going to disappear. Don't buy BABA in the US; you must buy in China or Hong Kong. Danger of delisting. Reasonable value. OK if you can stomach the risks, but if you can't then don't buy.

HOLD

Sell or double down? We've seen this movie before, with China flexing muscle. Tempting to buy at these levels. Recently, Seems to be forming a double bottom. He'd much rather see it above the $180-190 support level. Don't double down until the market tells you it's OK.

DON'T BUY

It surged today. The Chinese government won't let up on this company, but they send their message to these Chinese tech companies and investors, and the fines were paid. BABA has $85 billion in cash and will likely make another payment. With BABA, raise the risk level and lower your price target amid downgrades. Historically, China proves they will benefit their big companies and that their markets are wide open, but they have lain a heaver hand on BABA. He'd still be cautious.

RISKY

It's a tremendous buying opportunity. The price to get back to is $206, implying a 20% bounce, but the chart can still be in a downward trend. Anything can happen tomorrow with a new headline out of China, so be quick mindful that you're risking a lot to the downside.

RISKY

That chart shows a series or lower highs and lows. On August 23, he said finally there's capitulation on the chart when it traded down to $152.80. Though still in a downtrend, BABA could trade up to $205.

DON'T BUY

Her puts expired Aug. 15. She won't go back in. She's out.

COMMENT

The last time, he recommended this as a trade. If it doesn't hold at $200, sell. And that's what happened. But at $150, it's at strong technical support and rebounded nicely from that level. Expect a rebound pullback, so buy at $150. But if it sinks below $150, then it's heading lower--beware. How will the Chinese government treat Chinese tech companies? That's the question. He sees only 17% upside from current prices.

DON'T BUY

It's one of the cheaper tech stocks, but all tech stocks in China are facing regulatory hassles, especially BABA-N. This is baked into the stock, so eventually you want to own this. The government shut down BABA's IPO of AliPay. Also, it's traded in New York, so Wall Street is demanding full disclosure of its metrics, but the Chinese government doesn't want to reveal that much information. You can face trouble with this stock down the road. BABA does have a great e-commerce business, and it's expanded into areas like education. Overall, he wouldn't buy it.

DON'T BUY

He got out from the account of his couple of clients that held it. With the regulators pounding down, and with the nature of accounting in China, he decided he would play what he knew.

TOP PICK

Important to look at things from a contrarian standpoint sometimes. Negative news on Chinese stocks. One of the largest e-commerce companies. 58% of all online retail spending in China. Regulatory scrutiny has triggered a 35-40% price drop, good opportunity at 21x earnings. Revenue growth 22-23% annualized for next few years. Fundamentals and demographics are tailwinds. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $274.84)

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