BlackBerry (BB.TO)

Execution has been the real problem with this company. They keep pushing the BlackBerry 10 off but they are missing the key holiday season.

Losing market share hand over fist. However, there is value in the stock but he can’t see it. Some experts have been nibbling.

Failure with them was that they were an enterprise company and made a utilitarian product for the enterprise and then tried to make something cool for the retail environment but it didn’t work. This is very much of a “show me” story. New product next year has to consolidate that presence and that’s the only thing that is going to save them.

Smart phone market share is down to 4.8% from 11.5% in the 2^nd quarter of 2011. This company is falling further and further behind. While they are working on their new phone, Apple’s iPhone 5 is coming out and there are a whole bunch of new Android devices that have come out. Microsoft with its Windows 8 platform is going to take market share from everybody he suspects.

Really good balance sheet with a lot of cash. Has been watching the “cash burn” through the last 2 or 3 quarters and, if anything, there has been some cash accretion because of a terrific cash flow. Secondly they are holding onto the critical part of their subscriber base, the corporate side. Expects there is a huge pent-up demand for the blackberry 10. If you have concerns, consider buying in phases throughout the next 6 months or so. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it at $20 or much higher a year out.

Why is it down? It is in the tech sector. If it were friendlier to shareholders maybe it would not be where it is today. It is beyond traditional analysis. The patent portfolio may have more value.

Hasn’t owned this for quite a while now. Concerned about some of the things that have evolved. Have to prove that they are not going out of business. Real threat comes in the next 2 quarters as we see the impact of them losing share to Android and the Galaxy product, which was well received. There is also the iPhone 5 and Windows 8 in the next quarter.

They are starting to go through their cash. Biggest worry for analysts is that they will run out before someone comes in and does something. There is not a price she would be comfortable in buying the stock at. It is a very speculative situation. She has one from 5-6 years ago and it is indestructible. She would have to wait for the keyboard version of the next model personally. She is therefore worried about the sales of the new product. RIM has a lot going for it and some day there will be some kind of corporate activity. Wait until Nov/Dec if you want to buy.

Short-term trade? He is a bottom-up analyst and when he looks at this, he just doesn’t see the fundamentals improving for the company. There are an awful lot of challenges. Company continues to lose market share.

(A Top Pick Aug 19/11. Down 72%.) This was clearly a bad call and it has shocked him how bad it has broken down. Something is going to happen with this company in the year, one way or another. When he adds up the patents, the cash and the value of the enterprise visit to an IBM or something like that, he can easily come up with $12-$15.

A poor story. It has run down from a high level to where it is. Complete restructuring and laying off of people. You just don’t want to be there.

He has been very frustrated with this name. There are better things to do with your money.

Are the parts worth more than what it is trading at now? Possibly yes but they have a quickly deteriorating business and are in a space that has become very, very competitive.

Stock has gone up fairly nicely in the last week or so based on rumours. First it was Samsung and then it was IBM. Company has disappointed and putting all of its bets behind the BB10. He doesn’t see any interest by other companies at least until the BB10 is released.

New Playbook tablet has tons of applications, capabilities and speed. Will it be enough to move the stock higher? Playbook currently represents about 2.5%-2.6% of their revenue. Feels it is a little bit too little and too late at this point.