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Opinions The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
BP PLCBPTOP PICKDec 29, 2021
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As oil prices continue to stabilize and the economy edges forward, this is a good value entry point to again reitereate BP as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings beat analyst expectations and it trades near book value. It pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 67% of cash flow. It has paid down significant amounts of debt and is buying back shares, while keeping cash reserves relatively steady. We recommend keeping the stop $20, looking to achieve $35 -- upside potential over 28%. Yield 4.75% (Analysts’ price target is $35.05)
$27.07
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$39.06
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
integrated oils
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 10/22, Up 19%)
One of the best performing major energy companies in the world.
Trades at cheaper price than other names in the sector.
Very good oil marketing & trading group.
Good capital allocation at company with share buybacks and debt reduction.
Expecting recovery of oil price going forward.
Jamie Murray Owned
integrated oils
BUY
Buying back shares, increased dividend, paying down debt. Returning free cashflow to shareholders. Will continue to do that. Trying to be more environmentally friendly, but can't avoid that they're oil & gas. Capex will slowly go up. Throws up a lot of cash. Dividend is well supported.
integrated oils
BUY
These companies had exploding capex, but then the world changed with ESG. So they paid down debt, bought back shares, increased dividends. Wants to be more in renewables, and his only issue is how much they pay for something. Undervalued. Doing all the right things. Non-aggressive capex, returning money to shareholders, and that's why it will continue to do well.
integrated oils
BUY
Given the cashflows and potential to raise dividends and do buybacks, you have to add large-cap, European integrated companies. Favours them over Canada, excluding SU, as they're not subject to the WCS discount. Great total return story the next few years. You could also look at SHEL or TTE. He'd buy here.
integrated oils
TOP PICK
Trades at a discount to peers. New CEO has transformed the company. Share buybacks, just raised dividend 10%. Nice balance between gas stations, LNG, offshore oil. Debt will continue to come down. Yield is 4.66%. (Analysts’ price target is $37.04)
Jamie Murray Owned
integrated oils
PARTIAL SELL
Paying down debt, buying back shares, increasing dividend. Trying to be less into fossil fuels, more into renewables. Two risks: overspend on renewables, no clear vision on cost of capital. Oil is not sustainable at these high levels. In better shape than pre-Covid, lots of free cashflow. Good for now, but then think about Canadian oil companies that don't have the currency risk.
integrated oils
BUY
They're becoming an energy company and not merely oil and gas. They use their large cash flow to pay down debt and increase dividends. As they move into renewables, they concerned what their return on capital is. Oil prices are volatile but remain high, which is a plus. Could be some volatilty, but present share levels are fine.
integrated oils
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Premium contentPAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 21/22, Down 10.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BP has triggered its stop at $28. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a next investment loss of 3%, when combined with previous buy recommendations.
integrated oils
Premium contentTOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As European countries develop new secure supply strategies, we think this company will play a big part in this going forward and that is why we again reiterate BP as TOP PICK. It pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 60% of cash flow. It trades at 14x earnings compared to peers at 17x and at just 1.1x book value. We like that the company continues to aggressively retire debt and buy back shares. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $26) to $28, looking to achieve $37 -- upside potential over 17%. Yield 4.11% (Analysts’ price target is $37.00)
integrated oils
Premium contentTOP PICK
