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TSE:BTE

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

5.71
+0.11 (1.96%)
as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.
386 watching
0
BUY

As long as you believe that energy prices have to trade at some level above marginal cost globally, this company is a good purchase here. Well funded. Trading at 3 times normalized earnings. Everybody hates it. International investors are not coming to Canada as long as they don't see we can work as a country and sell our product and find more of it.

COMMENT
The energy sector has had its problems, including Baytex. They have very good properties, but margins are thin given the oil price. For energy as a whole, you'll have to wait a long time to find value.
HOLD
Real problem with energy and its stocks is that the psychology is totally negative. Until we see the horizon clear with oil price and supply, be very cautious about putting money in. If you hold it, you can continue to do so. (Analysts’ price target is $5.63)
TOP PICK
It's the poster child of hate for Canadian energy stocks. Balance sheet is decent now after being stretched for a long time. This is a screaming buy. They could buyback their own shares. This is close to a bottom now. (Analysts’ price target is $5.63)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Up 8%) This is about the 6.625% 2021 Bond - They have owned it since 2016 when the last oil crisis happened. Since it merged with another company it is a lot less risky. better coverage ratio. Sometimes they prefer to have the bond with an equity-like return.
DON'T BUY
He has a problem with this one. Debt went up from 17 to 1.9 or 88% debt to equity ratio. Third of production is heavy oil. The CEO does not own enough shares in the company.
TOP PICK
This is viewed as a over leveraged heavy oil producer. They have been lacking an institutional base, it is predominantly a retail investment base. They merged with Raging River. They de-levered their balance sheet. Fundamentally, nothing has changed with the company other than the oil price. Their cash flow will enable them to buy back all outstanding shares in 4 years. He sees a 150% upside to this. Yield = 0% (Analysts’ price target is $5.66)
WEAK BUY
The whole group, energy, has been pressured. It's slightly riskier than, say, Suncor. A decent opportunity. You may make a 5-10% return on this in 12 months?
BUY
I broke below 2017 support. About $2.50 is a hard exit point. Support is $3.60. Going up to resistance is a pretty good return. The volume does not coincide with the big reversal. He does not see big volume at the low levels.
BUY
It's been beaten up and now really cheap. He likes the very strong earnings forecast. His FMV forecasts 140% upside. This can go to $5 easily and perhaps $6.50. Do not sell now.
DON'T BUY

It is up 4% today. It is putting a base in here. He does not favour this sector. It is not showing enough strength. If it went above $3 he would take another look.

TOP PICK

Predominantly a light oil producer. They have changed their portfolio to only 21% heavy oil exposure – holding 40% in Eagleford light barrels. Debt to cash flow is only 1.7 times. He wants 10% of his portfolio to be this holding.

HOLD

The company has changed dramatically with the merger with Raging River adding exposure to Eagle Ford and light oil in Canada. In three years, Line 3 and Keystone will be sorted out, even Trans Mountain, makes him like being paid to wait for better times. He still owns their corporate bonds.

TOP PICK

Energy stocks are so beaten up that other companies will do M&A; companies see value out there. Generating cash now. Eventually this sector will see a lift. Tremendous upside. There's little risk in this. (no dividend, Price target $6.32)

DON'T BUY

This company has been through some tough times that will probably persist in terms in differentials in oil pricing. They are a bargain basement valuation, although he would not step into this sector. A lot of good things have to happen in order to realize their analysts' target price. They are more diversified; but there is still a lot of leverage. Cash flows from Eagleford are from Aurora. The valuation is still very levered to the price of oil and their ability to execute in the Duvernay. Try going for lower risk names,

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