Canadian Pacific RailCP.TOBUYSep 09, 2003Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
The rails trade in tandem. With CP buying Kansas City, CP now competes head-to-head with CNR which used to have more of a north-south network. He isn't jumping into these stocks, because of a possible recession later this year. If you're a long, long-term holder, holding rails isn't bad, but he wouldn't but them now.
Canadian railroads have 15% compound returns going back 30 years. CP has done way better than CNR. Wishes he owned CP, and you probably should own both. Will see buybacks, dividend increases, growth at GDP+. Always cutting costs. Will see double-digit returns for a very long time. Nothing can displace railroads. Drones just can't move the heavy stuff.
Bullish because we'll see more onshoring. Hard to tell if we're going into recession or accelerating. Should see restocking of inventory.
It's in the public interest to get this pipeline going, as it will be great for Canadian energy producers as a whole. Won't have a negative impact on the rails. Rail is not the most efficient for shipping oil, it's the overflow option.
He's positive on CNR and CP, more so on CP with its unique footprint integrating Canada-US-Mexico. Between onshoring and its management team, going to do quite well. Trades at a premium because of this.
Rails depend on overall economic activity. Rates will probably produce at least a temporary slowdown in economic growth. Price has come off. Next cycle could be 3-7 years from now. Starting to look attractive, good time to look at where you might pick it up. He hasn't jumped in yet. Kansas City acquisition makes it more competitive.
Great acquisition of Kansas City by CP was a game changer. CNR is the gold standard in North America. US is not in a recession yet, but if it does happen, all the rails will get cheaper. Don't settle for just a 1% differential from the historical average, when you might be able to get it 20% cheaper.