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Crescent Point Energy CorpCPG.TOBUYDec 08, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 14, 2024. Market Open.
Hammerhead was a good deal, horrific timing with oil falling overnight. Deal is 11% accretive on free cashflow per share, extended premium inventory life from 15 years to 20. He sees 75% potential upside at $80 oil. Yield is 4.21%.
He's pro-M&A, if it allows a company to pay shareholders more. CEO promised him last week that the company "is done" with M&A.
Never a good sign when your stock issue gets hung up. Timing wasn't ideal, with weaker sentiment on oil below $80. New concerns about acquisition binges. Special dividend was a "teaser". On the sidelines, due to short-term indigestion on the acquisition. May need dispositions to bring debt back down.
Expecting 100% upside at current share price. Transitioned from SE Saskatchewan to Montney play in BC (decades of inventory). Largest active shareholder in company. Trading under 3x cash flow given $80 oil price. New frac technique allowing for large increase of production from oil wells. Expecting ~$21 share price.
Looks really good for the small- to mid-cap energy space in Canada. At 2.4x, cheaper than peers at 3.4x. Decent dividend, some solid execution. Cashflow rising. Production growth profile of 7%. Investable. But do you want to buy now with a crowded trade and oil prices higher than they'll be in future?
WCP vs. CPG Both are good given strong sector rotation coming back to energy. Owns WCP for the dividend and growth potential.