Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

Energy is a late-cycle play, with crude locked in a trading range of $60-85 until late 2024 or early 2025. You could buy and collect your dividend, but energy stocks will be relative under-performers for the next 1.5-2 years. Yield is 2.5%.

Underperformed on issues with US refinery, indicates on track to get back online. New CEO bought $1M worth of stock. 30 years of inventory in heavy oil. Huge leverage to oil price. Once debt reaches a certain level, investors will reap all the free cashflow. Its 6x multiple is fair value. Yield is 2.57%.

Because of ESG pressure, big cap oil has decided to buy back shares, pay down debt, increase dividends, keep capex reasonable. Not bad to own over the long term, as oil production is not increasing so prices will stay higher. Hasn't liked CVE since it was spun off. He owns and prefers CNQ.

Great company, but share price driven by price oil.
Wait to buy.
Not a good time to be in energy.

High quality. One of the better Canadian oil and gas producers. Fairly strong balance sheet, small dividend. Stock price drop makes valuation more attractive. Tremendous amount of free cashflow. Increasing dividends. Can buy here, below $20 looks even better.

They hiked their dividend over 30% last quarter. Trades at a decent PE, 7.5x. Pays a 2.5% dividend. 

Trouble in last couple quarters. Oil prices will hang in. Nice cashflow. Over 2-4 years, you'll do OK. He owns CNQ.

Missed on Q1 cashflow and production, disappointing. Q4 missed also. Indigestion of fully integrating Husky. Looking for improvement in deliverability and consistency. Looking for a good entry point as it waits out in the penalty box. 

It is the cheapest senior in the oil sector but hasn't executed well. Suncor is better as a large cap pure oil play but he prefers the mid-caps such as Headwater and WCP

He owns CNQ instead, mainly because ESG is treating big oil companies like pariahs. So big oil's focus is to buy back shares, keep capex flat, increase dividends, and pay down debt. The bigger companies throw off a lot of free cash as oil price goes up.

Recent CEO retirement not a concern.
Is a top pick and is buying more shares.
Recent selloff unclear as to the reason.
30+ years of reserves.
$70 oil equates to 3.4x cash flow per share.
Pledged to return 100% of free cash flow later this year.
Expecting a $38 share price this year.

Energy shares on sale right now.
Return of capital to shareholders strong business move.
Economic slowdown will reduce oil prices.
Would not invest in company.