Guide Exploration (GO.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Guide Exploration (GO.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Gas levered story. Over the last 3 or 4 quarters it has been disappointing in growth of production. A “wait and see” story. Great multi zone activities but wait and see if the company delivers per share growth again.

BUY

Million acers of exploration plays.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 14/07. Down 39%.) Just tying in to a new Montney play. Cash flow is certainly there. Tremendous buying opportunity at this time.

BUY

A really good name. Possible takeover candidate. Has an enormous Montney land position. Good management.

STRONG BUY

Was gas weighted but is moving more to oil. Have over 1 million undeveloped acres in the sweet spot near the Montney and near all the action. A screaming buy. Trading at quite a discount to their peers. (Some of the management left to start another company.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 14/07. Down 10%.) Took some profits in the $19 area. Good production growth last quarter. Skewed to light oil and gas. Good management. Still a Buy.

HOLD

This will continue to grow. Likes its slate of properties.

BUY

With Duvernay Oil (DDV-T) being taken over by Shell, Crew Energy (CR-T), Galleon Energy (GO.A-T) or Storm Exploration (SEO-T) would be good replacements with acreage in the Montney region.

BUY

Among the cheaper plays, missed a couple of quarters.

BUY

In the Montney play. Impressive land spread. Generates a great deal of cash flow giving several years of impressive growth. Reasonably cheap on a multiple basis.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

About 50-50 oil and gas. In the Montney gas play. Think they will average just over 19,000 BOE’s a day this year. A quality name. A table-pounding buy at $16.50.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Natural gas. Going higher. Great land base to grow their production.

BUY

A compelling buy. Debt is low. Trading at less than 5X cash flow. Land spread is unbelievable. Have a lot of Montney exposure, a great land package up in Dawson plus all their Pushkwa oil. Great value even valuing in the new royalties that are coming in 09, which will hit their oil production.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 5/07. Up 16%.) Still buying. Just announced some financial numbers that weren't quite at their target, which worried the market. Trades at Price/Cash flows and NAV multiples the same as their peer group or less, but this management team deserves higher multiples.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 24/07. Down 13%.) 50/50 oil and gas. Thinks by Winter 08/09 there will be $12 natural gas.

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Guide Exploration (GO.TO)