Guide Exploration (GO.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Guide Exploration (GO.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Junior energies in Canada require capital. In a time like we are going through, unless you are in the top 10%, you tend to lose the market's attention and it is hard to get back on the curve again.

TRADE

The Debt is about 2.4 debt to cash ratio, but an above average chance of being taken over (guessing at $7). Watch the debt month after month.

BUY

Relatively small company, but one of the largest landholders in the Montney. Likes this name.

TOP PICK

About 35% oil/liquids and 65% natural gas. Doing about 18,000 BOEs a day. NAV of about $13.85 and $9 plus in BV. $10.75 target when commodity prices improve. Have 1 million gross acres in the Monte play. Great management team.

PARTIAL SELL

In a “show me” state. Have had good assets, very large land-based, good prospect inventory. The most recent one that has been promoted is in the Montney, Alberta but they are just off the major trend. Balance sheet is stretched. If you own, consider reducing your holdings. Be patient.

BUY

Of all the junior names, this is one that he would encourage you to hold on to. Reserves were up 40% year-over-year. Have an outstanding land position. 3rd largest player in the Montney. Trading at about 3X earnings.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Being gas weighted he would wait for something to happen in the gas market.

WAIT

(Market Call Minute.) Likes this but worries a little about the balance sheet. Wait for energy prices to firm up a little.

BUY

Good small/mid-cap company. Performing exceedingly well given this strained environment. Doing very well in the Montney plays. Have lots of potential to add reserves in the next 12 to 18 months. Target of $6.50 if they get a cash injection, otherwise $4.50.

BUY

Debt to cash flow levels are creeping up on all of these companies. Have over 1 million acres of undeveloped land in the Montney region. Tremendous upside. Have had some really good wells recently. Continue to monitor their debt.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Very strong company and very inexpensive. Great exposure to Montney.

DON'T BUY

Oil/gas producer of around 19,000 BOE's a day. About 60% natural gas. A “show me” stock as it fell hard in late 07 and 08 due to missing their targets. Haven't delivered the per-share growth the market was looking for. Significantly attractive assets.

BUY

Probably one of the cheapest ways to get into Montney gas. They are the third biggest landholder in that area. Very inexpensive. Good management. If you hold for 12 months, you should be amply rewarded.

BUY

Just reported 17,200 BOE’s a day in the 3rd quarter. Up from 13,700 the year before. Announced cash flow $.80 vs. $.54, so that's $3.20 annualized cash flow, making this an inexpensive stock. 1 X 1 debt to cash flow. Good line of credit. 1 million net acres in a core area of Callay Dawson (?) in Alberta. Very cheap.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 12/07. Down 60%.) Selloff on this was a little overdone. Overall, the cash flow estimates look reasonable. Have a great potential to expand their Montney play. Balance sheet is fine and they have a great acreage. Great Buy at this price.

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Guide Exploration (GO.TO)