Kinross GoldK.TOTOP PICKMar 25, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
Doesn't own either. Kinross has historical issues trying to right the ship, doing better recently.
For ELD, a very high 60% of NAV is exposed to development risk. Recent mine is financed and built, but there's still execution risk. Trades at a discount on geopolitical risk too.
His preference is AEM, with one of the best teams and one of the best executions he's seen over the last decade.
Barrick Gold? He prefers Kirkland Lake and Agnico Eagle among the big producers, because they have better leverage and are streamlined. He always puts Barrick and Kinross in the same category. Kinross buys assets at low prices, but he'd rather buy the companies they buy than Kinross itself. (The one positive with Barrick is Warren Buffet coming on board; big-value investors will buy Barrick and won't bother researching the mid-tiered players.) That said, he expects a better-levered move from KL and AE.
Bullish on gold. This one will give you exposure to the miners. He's always looked for the best operators, like KL with its clean balance sheet. Watch the USD. If it continues to rally, you'll get a much better opportunity to buy.
The earnings were good. He just doesn't like these big companies. He has done better with the other producers. He would go with Agnico that presents a better value. (Analysts’ price target is $9.25)
Gold is universally hated and the rule of thumb is to buy things when people hate them. This has been a poor performer but now has new management. Doing about 2.5 million ounces a year compared to Barrick (ABX-T) at 7 million which would have to acquire companies like Kinross every year to maintain production. This company just has to wait for small goal companies to go broke and get them at incredibly attractive valuations. Gold industry is saying they are not going to do anymore big projects, watch their costs, write off some properties and focus on growth. Music to his ears.