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Opinions Jon Case
Kinross GoldK.TODON'T BUYMay 30, 2014
Jon CaseStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
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Doesn't own either. Kinross has historical issues trying to right the ship, doing better recently.
For ELD, a very high 60% of NAV is exposed to development risk. Recent mine is financed and built, but there's still execution risk. Trades at a discount on geopolitical risk too.
His preference is AEM, with one of the best teams and one of the best executions he's seen over the last decade.
Has initiated a position in the company. Company focusing on core business model. Strength in US Dollar putting pressure on gold (expect this won't last). Larger institutions recently buying shares in the company.
Bruce Campbell (2)
Jaime Carrasco
Barrick Gold? He prefers Kirkland Lake and Agnico Eagle among the big producers, because they have better leverage and are streamlined. He always puts Barrick and Kinross in the same category. Kinross buys assets at low prices, but he'd rather buy the companies they buy than Kinross itself. (The one positive with Barrick is Warren Buffet coming on board; big-value investors will buy Barrick and won't bother researching the mid-tiered players.) That said, he expects a better-levered move from KL and AE.
Bullish on gold. This one will give you exposure to the miners. He's always looked for the best operators, like KL with its clean balance sheet. Watch the USD. If it continues to rally, you'll get a much better opportunity to buy.
The earnings were good. He just doesn't like these big companies. He has done better with the other producers. He would go with Agnico that presents a better value. (Analysts’ price target is $9.25)
Thinks this will be Up by the end of the year. Q1 started as a very strong quarter with costs below guidance, and production up across all fronts. This is expected to continue. In the 2nd half of the year Tasiast, one of their main mines, is supposed to have the grade come up. A strange asset base with assets in Russia, South America, Alaska and West Africa. Free cash flow looks to be quite strong, probably around 10%. Two stumbling blocks would be Russia where a lot of the free cash flow comes from, and Tasiast, the large West Africa development. Put out a new feasibility study on Tasiast, and is looking to building that asset. If so, the free cash flow will disappear for years to come. There are better places to put your capital.