Kinross GoldK.TOCOMMENTSep 29, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
Doesn't own either. Kinross has historical issues trying to right the ship, doing better recently.
For ELD, a very high 60% of NAV is exposed to development risk. Recent mine is financed and built, but there's still execution risk. Trades at a discount on geopolitical risk too.
His preference is AEM, with one of the best teams and one of the best executions he's seen over the last decade.
Barrick Gold? He prefers Kirkland Lake and Agnico Eagle among the big producers, because they have better leverage and are streamlined. He always puts Barrick and Kinross in the same category. Kinross buys assets at low prices, but he'd rather buy the companies they buy than Kinross itself. (The one positive with Barrick is Warren Buffet coming on board; big-value investors will buy Barrick and won't bother researching the mid-tiered players.) That said, he expects a better-levered move from KL and AE.
Bullish on gold. This one will give you exposure to the miners. He's always looked for the best operators, like KL with its clean balance sheet. Watch the USD. If it continues to rally, you'll get a much better opportunity to buy.
The earnings were good. He just doesn't like these big companies. He has done better with the other producers. He would go with Agnico that presents a better value. (Analysts’ price target is $9.25)
We are beyond the period of seasonal strength for gold stocks. From June 16 to October 9, this has generated a return of 1.71%. That is the period of seasonal strength for gold commodity and producers. Technically, the chart shows a bit of a head and shoulders pattern. If we get a break below the 200-day moving average of about $5, you could see significant lows ahead. Thinks gold miners are a great buy here even though we don’t have positive seasonal tendencies over the next few months.