The Monthly Gems by Allan TongShopify Inc.SHOP.TOTOP PICKDec 01, 2023

He's trimmed. Fantastic Canadian company. Try picking it up in the low $70s, high $60s. He'd suggest selling some calls, as it's run up.

Does not own shares, but share price has been growing steadily. Strong business, but valuation still seems high, so would wait for weakness before buying. 

Numbers improving on revenue, gross merchandising volumes, profits. Becoming more profitable. Total expenses as percentage of revenue has gone from 65% to 45%. E-commerce will continue to do well. Great company. Valuation an issue.

It has had a great run-up with revenue growing 24% this year and 20% next year. The business has three parts: point of sale, enterprise and international. Enterprise is a harder sell and the international component has only 4% of global e-commerce volume. It is trading at 14X sales and 140X this year's expected earnings so you could consider lightening your position.

Was a darling, then made some bad acquisitions. But they've added new board and executive members and backed out of logistics. This invited me to enter this name. He's been adding to this and is optimistic.

Is volatile, too much for him. A great company that's made a great comeback. They cut back on spending and reduced jobs. Now a more mature company, but the PE remains rich. He's wait and see on this.

After its run, he sold and used proceeds to buy CSU.

The margins have improved a lot and it is expanding internationally. At 11 X sales it has a high valuation along with a slowing growth rate. It wants to get into the enterprise market but it will take a while and its clients may not want or need comprehensive solutions.

Has a sticky recurring revenue business in their e-commerce enablement business, plus they can upsell through ancillary services like shipping.  A secular growth company with high valuations and volatility, but expects it to grow dynamically. Likes the asset-lite model of trimming the executive board. He keeps adding to this.

$22.82 is his model price. He predicts SHOP will test $64.80, a stop. If it falls below that, sell. Maybe this is a trade. Doesn't sell upside.

He targets $84.60. Top and bottom lines are much more consistent, so no longer a spec buy but long-term. Buy at $69 and add more at $67 and more at $61.

E-commerce is an ongoing trend but there is less of it than during the pandemic. It is a growth company so the headwinds are high interest rates. She thinks the valuation is too high.

All tech has enjoyed a monster bounce this year, including SHOP. Canadian tech stocks don't go from strength to strength and have a life cycle instead, given catch-up in technology and depth of management. He's never owned this, not a fan of Canadian tech stocks.

He targets $22.98 or 68% lower. The earnings haven't caught up to them. A high beta name. Sell at $63.23.