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TSE:TA
Just about everybody that is going to sell this, probably already has. Have recently been plagued by lower Alberta prices and uncertainties surrounding costs of environmental regulations that might be brought. Bottom fishing is very hard to do with stocks because you almost always overshoot. He sees the NAV at $15 a share. He models a 69% 2015 estimated payout ratio. 6.5% dividend is safe. Trades at a 2015 estimated free cash yield of 9.6%. If you can hold your nose, this is one that you can incrementally Buy.
He is really looking for companies that have accelerated earnings growth and this company hasn’t had that for some time. What you would have to look at is whether the dividend will be secure. The last thing you want to see is for them to be cutting their dividend. They have got rid of some of their nonproducing assets. If he owned, he would probably continue to Hold after he had done some more work on whether the dividend would be safe.
Had recommended this because it had looked so cheap, but a little while ago, he finally decided to throw in the towel. Their problem is that they have been paying out more than they have been earning. The balance sheet has been slowly slipping. If there is going to be a brighter tomorrow, the analysts who are following the company, are not reflecting it in their earnings forecasts.
Reduced their dividend, so it is much more sustainable at these levels. One issue is that they are really tied to the Alberta power market, and prices have been fairly volatile. The renewable energy business is really heavily weighted to wind as opposed to other areas. They have assets that require a lot of capital expenditures, which is one of the issues he has for this company. If you can Buy at these levels, you are fine. There are other areas that are much more beneficial.
Preferred Shares. Will not recover to par at any time soon. The ‘D’ series will not reset to where it should be paying. It pays what it does because of the risk. But he does not think they have a place in your portfolio. There is a lot of term on the stripped coupon bonds so you have interest rate risk.