Shane ObataTaiwan Semiconductor MFG.TSMBUYAug 11, 2023

All the semis ran up last year, so let them drift down. TSM is okay. Was up 32% last year. Let its PE falls to 17.5x PE.

Geopolitical risk a concern, but overall is confident on fate of Taiwan (threat of China invasion). Demand for semi-conductors continues to rise. Very good margins in business. Strong brand name. 

Bit of a trade. He sold in early fall around $107, picked it back up in low $90s. Undisputed market leader in foundries. Core holding, but you have to pick your spots.

Today the company announced that demand has really picked up, revenues up 35% on the quarter. This spurred a rally in all semis.

It has done very well and should be fine for the long term. It has caught up with and surpassed Intel as the industry leader. However there is political risk.

They keep building out capacity of foundries. He targets $102.50, a decent runway. Semis are very cyclical, but are coming out of the trough. It's a matter of capacity and how fast they can produce semis.

In the long term it makes sense. He likes ASML or KLAC more in this space. There are Geo-political concerns.

Risk in geopolitical tensions with China. World class business. Builds majority of semi-conductors in the world. Good long term investment. A.I. trend will positively impact company. 

Great company and good management. Lots of political noise in the sector. If you view the sector as having political risk, go and buy Samsung -- effectively the same risk, but there will be a pop on tensions with TSM. High capex has been pulled back, which tells us that the cycle will be longer and deeper. Put on your watchlist, but wait.

Very decent runway to price target of $107.40. Between 50-55% market share. Tradeable. Pick it up with a $70-something handle, sell when it gets above $110. But keep a core position, as it's going to be around for a long time.

Wait before you buy again. Buy if this falls another 10%. Likes TSM very much.

Fundamentally, company and business rank 10/10 for a long-term hold. 60% market share. Reputable. Semis have room to run. Starting an upward trend. Not a bad place to start picking it up, especially with a September pullback.

He's trimmed his position recently. They're running at full steam, because they service other companies like Nvidia and AMD, because they are the biggest foundry. They face a challenge supplying all those chips for AI. Buy at $93 now or $88, even the low-$80s.

TSM makes the chips, whereas NVDA designs them. Semiconductors have become very political between China and the US.

TSM is going to have large capex over the next little while, as they build new plants. A great business over the last several years. Issues are more political. Incredibly well run. Largest foundry in the world.

NVDA has been in the sweet spot of semis. Has done very well, especially AI products. In high demand, leading edge. Earnings come out soon. Run up a lot. Wait for a pullback.