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TSE:WEF
Chart shows a long upward movement with a few flags and then, all of a sudden the stock went a bit parabolic. You have to watch these really strong movers because there could be a pullback. This is normal and expected and don’t panic if you own it. Watch the 200 day moving average and if it breaks and stays below it for too long, then be careful.
Supply in the lumber space is somewhat constrained although there is supply coming from the southern US. Supply from Canada is somewhat constrained because of the pine beetle. This is really benefiting from the falling Cdn$. In general, the housing industry is improving so the demand for lumber is rising slowly.
Caller purchase this at $1.40. With that gain, he would probably trim. However, the prospects are still quite positive, and still fairly valued relative to its peers. One, differentiating factor, versus some of the other or stocks, they sell into the export market more than anybody else. Decent dividend. (See Top Picks)
Ranks very well in his income portfolio as well as his growth portfolio. This is a way to access the US housing market. Sells a lot of raw logs, but also sells some finished product. Earnings growth rate has been increasing as the supply increases in the US. Stock has had a fairly good run lately and thinks there is more to go.
Still majority owned by the Brookfield group, who are exiting everything except real estate and maybe some of their renewable energy. With a big shareholder exiting, that puts a little bit of a cap on the price. If it gets up above $2, they may sell more equity. On the other side, this is a stock that benefits hugely from a rebound in housing and demand for lumber. He is likely to sell his warrants after Jan 1st and others may do the same. He would look for a bit of a dip and would only Buy if you have the tolerance for a lot of volatility.
Anything in the lumber space right now is a pretty good bet, especially if it is a pure lumber play. Not sure that this is a 100% lumber play. If it is, or close to that, this would be a reasonable bet going forward with the US housing market improving. That story might take a little while to play out in 2014. We need to see US housing numbers start to turn around again. Yield of 4.7%. He owns International Forest Products (IFP.A-T) instead.
With a company like this, that is restructuring itself, and to have a yield is going to attract more capital. Question is, is it going to be more sustainable institutional capital. Short-term, we’ll see. Longer-term it is a very interesting company. The fact that it pays a dividend now and has a dividend payout ratio that is appropriate and prudent, between 30%-60%, absolutely.
Any company that announces the dividend and starts buying back stock is obviously feeling fairly confident. The forest companies have had a few tough years. This tells you that the US housing is coming back. Sometimes the stocks get ahead of themselves but he feels you should do alright on the stock.
This is doing very well. Relative strength is good and its volume is very strong. He doesn’t see this pulling back much. $2 might be a point where you might want to add some. If it drops below $1.80, you want to get out.