BCE Inc.BCE.TOCOMMENTJan 20, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 24, 2026. Market Open.
Close in valuations. Owns and likes both, but Telus a little better at these levels, as it has not as much capex ahead plus diversified businesses. BCE has more debt. Looking to increase weight of Telus. Both seem to be bottoming. Regulatory looks tougher going ahead. Be wary of any slowing in immigration, especially with any change in government.
Not the total return stories of the past 5-6 years, but good solid dividend yield. Start picking away at half positions.
BCE is more like a bond, given less growth than POW. POW will outperform this year. Insurers have done very well in the past year. Great-West Life is 70% of POW, now trading at a 30% discount to NAV vs. its historic 15-20% discount, so should gain momentum on this alone. The insurers are a little better than the telcos now.
Interest rates went up further than he thought, and bond proxies fell. Balance sheet now more stretched, recent acquisition has led to questions on best use of capital. 5% dividend growth, but investors are questioning wisdom of that use of cash. 17.7x PE is not cheap. This name will work over the next few years.
He doesn't think a 5% weighting in a stock is crazy, it's very reasonable. If you have a lot of conviction in those companies, then that's where your weighting should be. Yield is around 7%. Won't reduce the dividend unless something really terrible happens. Extremely mature company, will grow with GDP plus or minus, highly levered.
Investors own for the dividend. He wouldn't overweight his portfolio with it, but makes sense for a certain demographic.
Happy to own and add. Compelling yield, which will continue to grow at a mid-single digit pace. Lots of headwinds for indebted households and business, especially in Canada. So he's focused on companies that cater to needs, not wants. Right in the middle of the fairway of that. Good stable grower, dividend compounder, undemanding multiple. Likes the mix of businesses.
(Brian is pleased to report to the viewer that his cat, who made its TV debut during Covid, is alive and well. With Brian's return to the studio, the cat is no longer upstaging him ;)
Dollar-cost average down or will it be a falling knife?
One: telcos fell this year because of rising interest rates. Two: BCE rolled out 5G, which is great, but consumers don't want to pay for it (it's pricey). The Canadian telcos are among the companies that have issued a lot of debt in recent years. They hold a lot of debt. Pays a 7.5% dividend yield, safe, but don't expect much growth unless rates fall in a big way (and he doesn't see a catalyst for that).
During the last couple of weeks, he is starting to see interesting technical signs that the stock is starting to show some pretty good stuff. Yesterday it broke above a small trading range. Technically, he is starting to become more positive. On a seasonal basis, the stock normally does OK this time of year. The next couple of months is a good time to own this, but from a seasonal point of view, you may want to look at around the end of February for an opportunity to go into the more economically sensitive areas that will probably outperform this one.