New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.TO) Buy, Sell…

New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.TO)

22.69

-0.09 (0.40%)

as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

378 watching

DON'T BUY

Their competitors have an electric bus and NFI is struggling with that transition away from fossil fuel buses. A value trap.

WAIT

He would not be a buyer today because there is a pending transition to electric buses. Municipalities are holding back until they become more main-stream. Wait one to two years to see larger orders.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 28/19, Down 19%) Growth has slowed down a little bit. Some of the bigger orders have slowed down as municipalities consider going electric. They pay a good dividend.

SELL

NFI-T is a tax-loss candidate; New Flyer's deliveries are below expectations and their UK acquisition needs time. The stock is overly punished, though, and will stay in this range for a while.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The company was well loved by the market and was executed well. They have made good acquisitions. Then they had a fall from grace this year and there is negative sentiment now. There is a transition from gas to electric buses and this is a good niche. They have debt and are holding off on certain investments. However, there is good value here and pay a great dividend. Cash flow is also good.

TOP PICK

They recently under-performed. It bounced down to $26 three times in the last four months. They ramped up a manufacturing plant for parts that didn't do so well. They are a leader in electrification of public transit. This is a company that can keep the dividend intact and grow it for the next couple of decades. (Analysts’ price target is $34.64)

WATCH

He follows the stock. In recent times, he’s been tempted to step in. However, he thinks it’s a little early. He needs to see a base form and better numbers for backlog. They are in a good business, urban buses. Lots of production in the states so there is no problems. Just a little early. If there is an upward trend and better orders, he would look to buy it.

DON'T BUY

Competition has picked up, and there aren't as many orders to go around. Dropping delivery numbers, struggling to meet earnings expectations, and so volatility is increasing. Turnaround may take a while. Be cautious. Yield is 6%.

DON'T BUY

Used to own it. He was concerned with a recent acquisition, but more important is peak demand in transit buses, borne out in declining sales misses in the past 7 quarters, which isn't abating. We are nearing the bottom, so don't enter this yet. A wild card is 90% of their business comes from America, and what will the next president think?

SELL ON STRENGTH

They had a long history of beating earnings and showing growth. He now has short on this as a general hedge, due to the poor price momentum. They keep missing earnings. It is trading at 12 times earnings, but it does not have a lot of cash. The payout ratio is reasonable. Yield 6%

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 03/18, Down 19%) It is a classic value investment, down 50% from its all time high. Sales and acquisitions have slowed down but it is healthy and stable. They had some extra costs in building a new plant. And some self-inflicted supply chain problems. We'll see a big lift in 2020 because all the bad news will be out of the way in the next quarter or two. 6.5% dividend while you wait.

HOLD

Toronto testing buses? The electric bus is being tested. He has no insights as to whether a contract will be signed. They do have a 3 year backlog on orders. The multiples have fallen, but earnings are holding. They had issues in a parts plant to slowed production briefly. A recent acquisition of a UK bus is innovative. It will take a long time to convince buyers on the electric bus market, but they will be the leaders. Yield 6%

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 24/18, Down 32%) Disappointing lately with deliveries in their last report missing expectations. He's waiting for cities to replace existing buses (and ordering more from NFI). He wants to see better profitability. It'll be stalled for a while, but buying below $30 and holding should work out fine.

SELL

He used to own it and it did well for him. Their competition hurts their earnings trajectory. The last few quarters have been shaken. The balance sheet is okay, but negative earnings surprises could still happen. It's riskier now. Governments used to throw money at bus orders, but less so now.

COMMENT

In the last quarter, their revenues were up 1% but missed their earnings by 20%. When you are in the manufacturing sector, it's a capital intensive business. Then, you have to continue to borrow or continue to grow. Their acquisition hasn't been the best.

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